Tag Archive for: warehouse space demand

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Retailers, third-party logistics firms and e-commerce groups alike are eating up the most big-box warehouse space in today’s red-hot market.

Retailers and wholesalers accounted for the most industrial deals at 200,000 square feet or larger last year, or 35.8% of all leasing activity, a considerable increase from 24.7% in 2020, according to CBRE Group Inc. E-commerce fell from the No. 1 spot in 2020 to third last year, accounting for 10.7% of all deals, while 3PLs grew from 25.8% to 32.2%, ranking No. 2 among large industrial leases in both 2020 and 2021.

Propelled by a surge in online ordering, and changes to consumer preferences in part because of the pandemic, retailers and 3PLs have ramped up their distribution networks considerably in recent years. That demand is expected to be sustained this year, and could become even more frenzied with the recent surge in gas prices.

The cost of regular gas has risen nationally 20.9% in the past month, from an about $3.50 a gallon to $4.32 on Tuesday, according to figures from Heathrow, Florida-based American Automobile Association Inc.

James Breeze, senior director and global head of industrial and logistics research at CBRE, said transportation accounts for at least 50% of a typical industrial occupier’s costs, even before the recent hike in inflation and oil prices. But, largely because of sanctions imposed on Russia from the war in Ukraine, oil prices have risen dramatically, although Brent crude futures — a key benchmark for oil prices — just began to decline. National gas prices were down 0.2% between Monday, March 14 and Tuesday, March 15, according to AAA.

“Any run-up in transportation costs will likely outpace warehouse rent growth, even while that’s growing at a rapid clip, which could result in even more demand for warehouse space,” Breeze said.

Carolyn Salzer, senior research manager of industrial logistics at Cushman & Wakefield PLC said higher gas prices could have a ripple effect on the industrial market, depending on the user and their supply-chain model. Both Salzer and Breeze said real estate costs for warehouse users have typically been about 5% of a company’s costs but, more recently, that’s gotten closer to 10%, Salzer said.

“If you bite the bullet and pay the more expensive rent to be close to the population center, and be more competitive with the labor pool and provide easier options for commuters to get to where you’re located, it can cut your transportation costs on gas and mileage in general,” Salzer continued.

Cushman & Wakefield is forecasting rent growth for warehouse and logistics space will rise by more than 15% in the next two years. Class A and new construction rents are anticipated to grow at an even higher rate. Those rental surges are creating a squeeze for some users, with tenants looking at lease terms sooner than what’s typical, or negotiating an early renewal or a smaller extension to resize a facility or consider real estate farther out, Salzer said.

But, Breeze said, for most industrial users today, higher rental rates generally aren’t causing companies to hit the brakes on expansion because they need the space to store inventory and lower transportation costs.

Salzer said she anticipates e-commerce users will occupy about the same share of the market it has since the pandemic, or 40%. That’s compared to 28.2% of all industrial absorption from 2016 through 2019, according to Cushman. Many retailers are opting to work with 3PLs to bolster their supply chains, which will continue to comprise demand in 2022 and beyond.

“CBRE so far this year has seen ramped-up leasing activity for groups that deal in building and construction materials, as well as medical supplies, which typically represent a lower share of the overall warehouse market, Breeze said. “That’ll likely mean a more diversified occupier base this year.”

 

Source: SFBJ

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After receiving unsolicited offers to buy its 8.6-acre industrial site in Medley last year, KDD Properties decided to list it and see how many institutional investors would line up with competitive bids.

There were no less than 25 offers from various public and private pension funds and institutional investors,” Sky Groden of JLL, which marketed the property, told The Real Deal. “The deal ended up transacting at 25 percent higher than the unsolicited offers.”

Prologis, the behemoth industrial developer that dropped $43 million to acquire 29 acres of industrial properties in areas close to Miami International Airport last year, placed the winning bid. In December, the firm closed on the Medley property, which consists of a fully leased, 43,700-square-foot building and 5.5 acres of trailer truck parking.

More and more, industrial developers and institutional investors are looking at truck stops and construction equipment yards, like the Medley site, that offer vacant land that can be developed, Groden said.

With a limited number of big industrial properties for sale across South Florida, even major players are turning to smaller buildings on large parcels. There’s a rush to wheel and deal for any existing warehouse properties as the sector continues to outperform all others, commercial real estate experts say.

 

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South Florida’s industrial market fundamentals, particularly for bulk warehouse space, blew through the third quarter of 2021 on strong leasing demand and new construction

The region’s healthy consumer market and growing population helped push investor and occupier confidence in the industrial market, which is likely to continue through 2022.

The backlog at West Coast ports is causing weeks of delays for goods that need  to travel to East Coast markets, making warehouse/distribution space in South Florida an attractive and faster alternative from a distribution standpoint. Bottlenecks in the supply chain are realigning how many firms view real estate needs locally with a shift in philosophy for inventory management.

Previously, companies focused on lean supply chains where materials and goods arrive “just in time.” In a market like South Florida, that meant limited amounts of warehouse space were needed.  Now, companies are turning to an inventory strategy that follows a “just in case” model, where more goods are stored closer to customers to minimize fluctuations in demand. South Florida, with three deep-water ports, has the capacity to address the immediate logistics needs for companies with changing inventory strategies.

In the last year, 18,200 new industrial and warehouse-related jobs were created in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. They were added because of big-box expansion by e-commerce firms, together with a push into last-mile facilities. Hiring also occurred with traditional retailers, plus new-to-market entrants, which increasingly viewed the tri-county as a strategic location to serve the immediate needs of customers.

New inventory and aggressive development captured some of the new employment. In the first nine months of 2021, 5.4 million square feet of new industrial space was delivered in the region. As the industrial inventory and deliveries grew, so did the occupiers’ space requirements for square footage, but new construction could not keep up.

As of the end of the third quarter, 6.6 million square feet of industrial space was under construction, with three projects representing 1.8 million square feet of new inventory. Still, overall industrial vacancy in South Florida fell to 4.4 percent in the third quarter. Both Miami-Dade and Palm Beach County were even tighter at 3.3 percent, with Broward County coming in at 5.9 percent as available space throughout the region decreased year-over-year.

While not a record-setting year yet, new leasing activity year-to-date of 11.6 million square feet was only 18 percent less than the full amount for all deals done in 2019. Net absorption, or the amount of space absorbed by tenants, was 7.8 million square feet in 2021. That represents a 250 percent increase in the amount of space absorbed when compared to 2020.

yc37i south florida industrial absorption The South Florida Answer to West Coast Logistic Bottlenecks

In Miami-Dade, leasing reached more than 6.8 million square feet year-to-date, an increase of 15.5 percent compared to the same period one year ago. For that same period, Broward County recorded more than 3.6 million square feet, a 36.1 percent rise from 2020. Palm Beach County had 1.0 million square feet in new leasing activity so far in 2021.

Limited availability on heightened demand allowed landlords to push asking rates to all-time highs. Overall average asking rents for all South Florida were at $9.87 per square feet, triple net, the highest amount recorded. Rents in Miami-Dade were at $9.17 per square foot, a 7.1 percent jump from last year. And Broward County also reached an all-time high of $10.27 per square foot in the third quarter. Palm Beach County topped out at $11.07 per square foot with the asking rate rising steadily over the last three quarters as construction picked up.

AfGHE south florida industrial rents e1637699131823 The South Florida Answer to West Coast Logistic Bottlenecks

Confidence in South Florida’s economy and potential for growth will only be enhanced by the lifting of U.S. restrictions on foreign travel. The influx of travelers and investors from overseas, starting over the holidays, will contribute to additional optimism in industrial market fundamentals in the region. The longer that challenges remain at West Coast ports to efficiently move goods into the United States means that South Florida becomes the better, more reliable strategic alternative for companies. The region’s positive fundamentals post pandemic,including solid population growth and rising incomes, make South Florida an attractive market for investment.

 

Source: Commercial Observer

 

As shopping centre and high street landlords survey the wreckage left by coronavirus, warehouse owners are facing a different problem: how to deal with record demand.

The pandemic has pushed more consumers online, prompting a rush for warehouse space, from small “last-mile” delivery sites near city centres to cavernous “big-box” distribution centres

Amazon has led the charge. The company, which has added an eye-watering $600bn to its market capitalisation this year as sales have jumped, is inking lease agreements on mammoth warehouses around the world. It has committed to opening 33 “fulfilment centres” in the US this year, an additional 35m square feet spread from Atlanta to Arizona.

The US ecommerce giant is also the incoming tenant of a 2.3m square foot warehouse on London’s outskirts, according to people with knowledge of that deal. Amazon’s sprawling expansion is one reason why investors are sensing opportunity.

The take-up of UK logistics space hit record levels in the second quarter of the year, according to property group CBRE — despite the lockdown.

“Following a quiet few months after coronavirus hit, investors are back with a vengeance”, said David Sleath, chief executive of Segro, the dominant logistics company in the UK and a sizeable participant in Europe which last week said it had lifted first-half profit. “If you are a global institutional investor and you want exposure to commercial real estate, this is an attractive place to be.”

A decade ago, ecommerce accounted for 6.7 per cent of all retail sales in the UK, according to the Office for National Statistics. By February, the month before the outbreak, the figure was 19 per cent. By May it had hit 33 per cent. In April, 27 per cent of purchases were made online in the US, according to the commerce department and Bank of America.

Until recently, the most desirable property to own was a traditional mall. Malls had a natural moat, being difficult to develop and serving a catchment area

“That share was likely to diminish as stores reopened,” cautioned Mr Sleath, “but incoming tenants were looking to crystallise that temporary spike into increased capacity”.

“There’s a wall of cash coming into our sector,” said Marcus de Minckwitz, an investment adviser on European logistics at Savills property.

Every extra £1bn spent online means the addition of almost 900,000 square feet of logistics space, according to CBRE. New York-listed Prologis, the world’s largest warehouse company, estimates that 1.2m sq ft of space is needed for every $1bn in ecommerce sales in the US.

Gains from ecommerce tenants far outweigh the losses from bricks-and-mortar retailers, according to CBRE, one reason why Blackstone, the world’s largest private property owner, has described logistics as its “highest conviction” sector.

“Until recently, the most desirable property to own was a traditional mall. Malls had a natural moat, being difficult to develop and serving a catchment area . . . Logistics for a long time was viewed as the other end of the spectrum: not so exciting and more easily replicable,” said Ken Caplan, global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. The rise of ecommerce had shifted that whole dynamic.”

In June 2010, Segro’s market capitalisation was less than £2bn, according to data from S&P Global. Now at £11.8bn, it is comfortably the UK’s largest listed property group; UK shopping centre owner Intu, meanwhile, has collapsed. The value of US peer Prologis has climbed a fifth this year to roughly $77.5bn.

Dozens of shopping centres in the US are being turned into industrial sites, according to CBRE, which says Covid-19 will accelerate the trend. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon was in talks with mall owner Simon Property to repurpose department stores as distribution hubs.

Thanks to the ecommerce boom, CBRE predicts there will be demand for 333m sq ft of new space in the US by 2022 — treble its previous estimate — and expects rents to grow by about 6 per cent a year. Amazon is not the only eager tenant. Fashion retailers with a limited online presence have desperately sought space to park stock they could not shift in the pandemic.

“They already have warehouses full of clothes, then next season’s come in and they can’t stack it,” according to one UK property agent.

“But while some warehouse owners had suffered hits to rental income from retail tenants in particular, investors bidding for new sites were achieving few discounts,” said Mr de Minckwitz.

“Some indiscriminate investors were likely to get caught out, warned Mr Sleath. “There will be more retail fatalities, that will mean empty warehousing as well as shopping centres. It’s very important to think about where you place your money.”

Asset manager PGIM bought five German logistics sites last month and said it was optimistic that demand would only grow. Private equity firms are piling in too: as well as Blackstone, Meyer Bergman plans to raise €750m to invest in Europe.

“Investors needing long and strong sources of income, such as sovereign wealth funds and European pension funds, were also attracted by the sector,” said James Dunlop, a fund manager at Tritax Big Box.

“But some might come unstuck,” cautioned Adrian Benedict, head of real estate solutions at Fidelity. “There’s a flood of capital from retail to logistics. Inevitably, with every crisis, you see those poorly considered deals at the end of the cycle are the ones you really regret.”

 

 

Source: SFBJ