Tag Archive for: supply chain shortages

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Building Burden: Rising Construction Costs Weigh Down Profits

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When it comes to housing in South Florida, homebuyers and renters aren’t the only ones grappling with sticker shock.

Developers often face construction costs that are 20% to 30% higher than a year ago – a trend that’s already stalled some projects at a time when local residents struggle to secure housing. That means builders have to weigh whether to accept smaller profit margins, eschew some projects altogether or, in the case of affordable housing, seek more money from public funding sources to complete those jobs.

The tri-county region has become one of the most expensive U.S. metropolitan areas to live in due to the heated demand for housing and shortage of developable land. Much of that stems from the influx of out-of-state residents who flocked to the area in record numbers during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The rising cost of materials such as lumber, steel, fuel and iron, as well as tariffs, trade issues and surging labor costs have also driven up construction costs, resulting in higher rents for residential and commercial properties. And rising interest rates also are bringing down some sale prices, which impacts developers’ profit margins.

The spike in construction costs has led some developers to question the viability of taking on certain projects. For example, if construction estimates for condos come in too high, it may not make financial sense to build them, industry insiders say.

Developers and contractors must budget for construction cost increases and prepare for shortages in the supply chain. Items such as concrete, appliances, glass and steel are just some of the necessary staples that can delay the completion of the buildings.

“Construction costs have been as volatile as I’ve ever seen them in my 40 years in the market,” said Michael C. Taylor, CEO of Pompano Beach-based Current Builders. “From August of last year, we are seeing 20% to 25% increases. We don’t have any line items not increasing.”

Typically, Taylor tells developers his quotes are good for six months. But now he can only guarantee prices for 30 to 60 days, as delivery times on certain products have jumped from three months to nearly a year, he added.

Supply chain shortages and material costs are escalating at a pace he’s never seen, said Chris Long, president of Delray Beach-based Kaufman Lynn Construction.

“There’s great demand for housing as people continue moving to Florida, but this has led to affordability challenges,” Long said. “There’s some concern out there that we reached the peak and things need to normalize. They are trying to get deals done before the bubble bursts.”

Construction costs for commercial projects are up 7% to 10% a year, so it’s less severe than for residential projects, said Michael C. Brown, executive VP of Florida for Sweden-based construction firm Skanska. Nevertheless, many of its health care and education clients are scaling down the size of projects – an eight-story hospital wing instead of 10 stories, for instance – to move forward.

Contract Sticking Points

In many cases, the rise in construction costs has created friction between developers and general contractors.

Contracts inked a few years ago couldn’t factor in dramatic building cost increases or supply chain delays, so the parties have to determine who pays for those additional costs, said Lisa Colon, a construction attorney with Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr in Fort Lauderdale.

“Owners are making concessions because of supply chain issues that they would not have made two years ago,” Colon said. “Profit margins are less, but you can push it down to the consumer. The consumer will continue to see an increase in rent. Many developers and contractors are now adding price escalation clauses that specify a larger commitment from developers to cover cost overruns. It’s a false thought that contractors are making all this money as prices are going up. Nothing could be further from the truth. Their profit margins are being squeezed even tighter.”

Construction contracts should also address delays and whether material shortages should result in financial compensation, because most contractors will insist on avoiding liability when material shortages are out of their control, said Jordan Nadel, a construction attorney at Miami-based Mark Migdal & Hayden.

 

Source: SFBJ

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Higher Inflation Means More Competition For CRE Assets

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Supply chain problems, labor shortages, and the housing shortage are all fueling inflation to eye-popping levels – and for CRE investors, that will mean greater competition for assets.

Headline inflation is up 7.1% from last year, the biggest uptick since 1982. And that rising inflationary pressure is forcing the Fed to switch gears and tighten policy.

“This will in turn put upward pressure on interest rates, raising the cost of capital for CRE investors,” says Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang.

Supply chain is the first contributing factor to inflationary pressures.

“It’s hard to move products from the manufacturers to the customers,” Chang says.

He points to shortages in raw materials, limitations on foreign port capacity, shipping container shortages, backlogs at domestic ports like those in Los Angeles and Long Beach, and a shortage of trucks.

“Basically, people want to buy more stuff than our supply chain can handle right now, so there are shortages and that means prices go up,” Chang says.

Retail sales are up 16% over 2019 numbers, while the amount of product moved by trucks in the US is down 5.1% over the same period.

The second issue? Labor shortages, which continue to stoke inflation.

“Quite simply, the US has never experienced a labor shortage like this,” Chang says. “At least not in the last 22 years, when records have been kept. As a result, companies are competing for personnel, and that’s driving up wages.”

Average hourly earnings are up 5% over last year, and sectors like accommodations and food services have seen labor cost increases of more than 15%.

“Rising wages create broad-based long-term inflation,” Chang says.

The third challenge is the housing shortage: there are not enough houses to buy or apartments to rent right now, and the problem will likely continue at least in the near term. There are currently about 1 million houses for sale in the US right now, about two months’ worth of supply; typically, four to six months’ worth of supply is required to maintain stability in the market.  Housing prices shot up 14.9% last year in response to the shortage.

In addition, there are only about 480,000 apartments available for rent, a vacancy rate of 2.6%, the lowest on record. Rents rose 15.5% last year.

“The Fed will be taking action to curtail the rising costs,” Chang says.

He notes that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already announced plans to accelerate the end of quantitative easing that was put in place during the pandemic, and says this will likely put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. The overnight rate is also on track to increase three times or more this year, which will put upward pressure on short term interest rates.

“As a result, interest rates are likely to continue to rise,” Chang says.

The ten-year Treasury rate is already up about 30 basis points from the beginning of December to a little over 1.7%. For investors, this will equate to more competition.

“Commercial real estate is viewed as one of the best places to invest money during periods of high inflation, especially properties that can increase rents with the market, like apartments, hotels, and self-storage properties,” Chang says. “Rising interest rates, and increased investor demand, implies that levered yields will compress this year. Basically, more commercial real estate buyer competition will push cap rates lower while the cost of capital, or interest rates, rise. That means CRE levered returns may tighten. But several property types still offer higher yields, like well-positioned office assets, retail assets, medical office buildings and some hotels, and properties in softer markets harder-hit by COVID restrictions could also offer higher yields and stronger multi-year returns.

 

Source: GlobeSt

A Tight Market For Industrial Service Facilities Is About To Get Tighter And Investors Sense Opportunity

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Everyone is becoming more accustomed to seeing small trucks roam their neighborhoods, delivering goods ordered online.

But even as the coronavirus pandemic greatly intensified demand for these services, most municipalities are reluctant to approve proposals to develop new industrial service facilities where distributors and other businesses can store, maintain or dispatch vehicles, heavy equipment or bulk materials.

“Nobody wants to live next to a truck terminal,” JLL Senior Associate Kate Coxworth said. “That not-in-my-backyard, or NIMBY, attitude keeps new supply low, sending rental rates soaring for existing industrial service facilities in markets across the U.S.”

That’s helped in the past 12 months to draw in a new cadre of developers and investors who now see these facilities as an essential component of the rapidly expanding industrial sector.

“These facilities are the skeleton of the supply chain, and there are more people making the discovery that there are real opportunities here,” Industrial Outdoor Ventures CEO Tom Barbera said.

Barbera started Schaumburg, Illinois-based IOV about five years ago, and for most of that time, only three or four other firms specialized in acquiring and developing properties within the niche sector, he said. But things changed in 2021. A new group of six to eight firms is now out there and has made the market for industrial service facilities more competitive.

“And I think we’ll continue to see new folks get involved,” Barbera said.

National investment players have also joined the fray. IOV formed a joint venture in March with San Francisco-based Stockbridge, planning to make between $100M and $200M of acquisitions annually. IOV completed 24 acquisitions in its first four years, but thanks to the new joint venture, it has picked up the pace and has closed 16 new acquisitions since February.

That includes the 39K SF 1401 North Farnsworth Ave. in Aurora, Illinois, a Chicago suburb, and the 22K SF 4212 Perry Blvd. in Whitestown, Indiana, an Indianapolis suburb. Both are 100% occupied by MacQueen, a fire truck and emergency equipment provider that uses the properties for truck maintenance and repair.

“By the end of this year, IOV could close on another 20 properties and be in at least a dozen major metro areas, including South Florida, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and Houston,” Barbera said.

 

JLL also recognizes ISF’s growing importance as an asset class, and plans to establish a group of specialists that will handle such transactions, according to Coxworth, who helped represent IOV in the Aurora and Whitestown deals.

“JLL researchers have started tracking the nationwide vacancy rate among ISF properties,” Coxworth said.

It now stands at 3.1%, and with many municipalities expected to continue blocking new facilities, especially in dense residential areas now served by so many delivery trucks, investors can be confident the market will stay tight. In addition, ISF tenants promise steady returns.

“Almost all of the tenants are signing 10-year leases because they all understand that this is a hard commodity to find, and once you do, you better hold onto it,” Coxworth said.

These tenants have shown a willingness to pay much more in rent as the industrial boom continues, according to Timber Hill Group Managing Partner Cary Goldman, who founded the Chicago-based firm in 2018. The first truck parking facility he bought was near southwest suburban Stickney and Chicago’s Midway Airport, and tenants typically were paying about $135 per month for each space.

“But spaces in the same area now go for between $275 and $300,” Goldman said. “And spaces near Chicago’s O’Hare Airport can cost $375 and are trending toward $400. What other sector has seen its rental rates more than double in just a few years? Although that will certainly help bring in more investors, it’s a management-intensive business, and actually operating industrial service facilities will probably stay with specialists.”

Unlike the new distribution warehouses so popular with investors, ISFs sometimes have hundreds of tenants, each needing just one or a few truck spaces.

“It really is akin to self-storage,”  Goldman said. “And setting rental rates isn’t easy, as no one tracks the information needed to generate comps. There is no CoStar for truck parking places, The information is not easy to obtain and it takes a lot of real ground-level research. It’s also not a trophy asset,” he added. “It doesn’t look pretty on a brochure. It’s a lot of gravel behind a fence.”

Timber Hill Group now owns 16 assets, according to Goldman, and like IOV, plans to keep buying. It formed a joint venture in September with Chicago-based Champion Realty Advisors, and over the next 12 to 18 months the venture plans to acquire $150M of assets in infill locations near road interchanges and rail networks.

He said he expects that the market for ISFs will soon get even tighter in most metro areas. Not only is it tough to get the proper zoning and other approvals from cities for new truck parks and storage areas, but ISF owners can frequently score deals to transform existing spaces.

“Supply is actually coming off the market, because it’s being converted to other uses, an added bonus for ISF owners, Goldman said. “It provides good cash flow while you wait for great development opportunities.”

 

Source: Bisnow

 

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US Economy Is Shifting But Changes Good for CRE

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Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and founder of Economy.com told more than 1,000 attendees of NAIOP’s CRE Converge conference taking place in Miami Beach, that while the pandemic is altering the U.S. economy, changes in store bode well for commercial real estate.

On the positive side, the economy has recovered 17 million of the 22 million jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. The policy response on the part of the Federal Reserve, Congress and the White House, including maintaining low short- and long-term interest rates, the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan, have collectively kept the economy from failing.

“I’m assuming that the pandemic is going to continue to wind down, and that with each new wave the disruptions to the economy will be less significant. Over the course of the next 18-24 months, the pandemic doesn’t go away but it largely fades away in terms of what it means in terms of our work and lives,” Zandi said.

Zandi noted that however it shakes out, the infrastructure spending packages will also be beneficial to the economy. And he said that with respect to monetary policy, the Fed will slowly take its foot off the monetary accelerator – raising short term interest rates by spring of 2023 and tapering the quantitative easing of buying bonds.

The pandemic has not only accelerated certain trends, it is causing permanent shifts. These include remote work, less domestic travel generally, less business travel and an increasing net migration from urban cores.

Prior to the pandemic, a net of 275,000 people on average were leaving urban cores in the U.S. to live in other locales; during the pandemic, that number jumped to more than 600,000.

Zandi also identified the risks inherent in the post-pandemic economy:

  • The Delta variant of COVID-19 has unnerved consumers and workers.
  • Fiscal policy is at risk with Congress threatening to not fund the government’s fiscal year, which begins Oct 1.
  • Housing prices are stretched and possibly primed for a correction as interest rates begin to increase.
  • Maybe not today, but at some point down the road, government debt and deficits will become a problem.
  • Supply chain shortages continue to make it difficult to obtain building supplies and consumer goods.

Meanwhile the pandemic has also fueled a significant rise in productivity.

“There are fundamental things going on in the economy that argue for stronger productivity growth. Businesses are investing in labor-saving software, baby boomers are retiring, and the workforce is becoming younger,” Zandi said. “That’s a big deal for the economy. It goes to profits, wages, and our ability to address our fiscal policies.”

 

Source: GlobeSt.