Tag Archive for: moody’s analytics

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CRE Lending Could Get Even Tighter If Fitch Downgrades Banks

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The U.S. commercial real estate industry’s ability to get credit and, therefore, fortunes have strong ties to the 4,648 insured banks (according to the FDIC) in the country that provide about 38.6% of CRE loans.

Anything that negatively affects the stability and credit ratings of the banks is an issue for the CRE industry. Despite multiple federal officials and regulators repeatedly saying that the entire banking system is sound, Moody’s recently cut ratings on a number of smaller and regional banks and put some larger ones on notice that they might face potential actions.

Now Fitch Ratings analyst Chris Wolfe warned in a CNBC interview that the current financial state of banks couldn’t be taken for granted. It is possibly that a slight change in conditions for the industry, with an overall rating drop like the one Fitch instituted in June, could force a reconsideration and credit downgrade of some major banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, because an individual bank can’t have a credit rating higher than the industry as a whole.

In June, Fitch downgraded banks’ “operating industry” score from AA to AA- “because of pressure on the country’s credit rating, regulatory gaps exposed by the March regional bank failures and uncertainty around interest rates,” as CNBC wrote.

A second downgrade would leave the industry at A+. Currently, JPMorgan and Bank of America, among some other of the largest banks, have an AA- rating from Fitch.

JPMorgan said that it did not have a comment in reply to a GlobeSt.com request. Bank of America also said it wouldn’t comment, but did send a copy of Moody’s May 3, 2023, upgrade of the “long-term debt and deposit ratings, counterparty risk ratings and counterparty risk assessments of Bank of America Corporation” and its rated subsidiaries and the baseline assessment of its principal bank subsidiary, Bank of America, N.A.

However, in today’s quickly changing economic environment, the date of that upgrade is close to four months old. Downgrades would have serious implications for banks and for CRE lending. With a lower rating, banks have higher credit costs and more concerned investors and depositors. That could drive banks to polish up their balance sheets even more, which in turn could mean reductions in CRE lending and selling off of existing loans, which would drive down their value and that of existing loans, undermining valuations going forward.

 

Source: GlobeSt

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Fewer CRE Loans Being Refinanced, But Lenders Find Other Ways To Work With Borrowers

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Lenders and special servicers are looking beyond refinancing options when it comes to working with borrowers on commercial real estate loans that are set to mature in the coming months and years, even as those loans increasingly are backing properties facing distress.

According to an analysis by Moody’s Investors Service, the percentage of real estate properties that use commercial mortgage-backed securities debt that are being refinanced is on the decline. Conduit refinance rates were 78.1% and 71.8% in the first and second quarter of this year, respectively, compared to 85.5% in 2019, the year before the Covid-19 pandemic and broader economy upended the commercial real estate market.

“Given the low interest-rate environment that existed before the pandemic, it wasn’t surprising to see so many loans refinanced then, especially if a borrower had a strong debt-service coverage ratio, which measures available cash flow versus debt obligations,” said Matthew Halpern, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service.

Interest-rate hikes imposed by the Federal Reserve over the past year in the wake of rising inflation have compressed real estate values. Add to that rising vacancy rates and a weaker leasing environment in especially the office sector, and the pressure has increased on building owners with loans coming due in the near term.

“Some loans are performing well from in-place cash flow but are unable to refinance,” Halpern said.

Lenders also have tightened standards in the wake of a more challenging economy and commercial real estate market, with some banks outright saying they’ve stopped new lending to office properties. While fewer loans are getting refinanced overall, there’s been an uptick in the number of performing loans that are past maturity but haven’t been formally extended. That amount, negligible before the pandemic, reached 5.2% in Q1 of this year and 6.9% in Q2.

“That means the borrower is still making interest and principal payments as if the loan hadn’t matured — which typically suggests the borrower is committed to the property,” Halpern said. “Because the overall refinance rate has declined in recent quarters, the number of performing loans past maturity has naturally risen.”

The Moody’s analysis, which only examined CMBS loans, found 16.7% of maturing loans tracked by the firm were delinquent as of the second quarter. That share was much higher in the office sector, with 27.6% of office loans scheduled to mature in Q2 2023 considered delinquent.

 

Source: SFBJ

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US Economy Is Shifting But Changes Good for CRE

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Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and founder of Economy.com told more than 1,000 attendees of NAIOP’s CRE Converge conference taking place in Miami Beach, that while the pandemic is altering the U.S. economy, changes in store bode well for commercial real estate.

On the positive side, the economy has recovered 17 million of the 22 million jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. The policy response on the part of the Federal Reserve, Congress and the White House, including maintaining low short- and long-term interest rates, the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan, have collectively kept the economy from failing.

“I’m assuming that the pandemic is going to continue to wind down, and that with each new wave the disruptions to the economy will be less significant. Over the course of the next 18-24 months, the pandemic doesn’t go away but it largely fades away in terms of what it means in terms of our work and lives,” Zandi said.

Zandi noted that however it shakes out, the infrastructure spending packages will also be beneficial to the economy. And he said that with respect to monetary policy, the Fed will slowly take its foot off the monetary accelerator – raising short term interest rates by spring of 2023 and tapering the quantitative easing of buying bonds.

The pandemic has not only accelerated certain trends, it is causing permanent shifts. These include remote work, less domestic travel generally, less business travel and an increasing net migration from urban cores.

Prior to the pandemic, a net of 275,000 people on average were leaving urban cores in the U.S. to live in other locales; during the pandemic, that number jumped to more than 600,000.

Zandi also identified the risks inherent in the post-pandemic economy:

  • The Delta variant of COVID-19 has unnerved consumers and workers.
  • Fiscal policy is at risk with Congress threatening to not fund the government’s fiscal year, which begins Oct 1.
  • Housing prices are stretched and possibly primed for a correction as interest rates begin to increase.
  • Maybe not today, but at some point down the road, government debt and deficits will become a problem.
  • Supply chain shortages continue to make it difficult to obtain building supplies and consumer goods.

Meanwhile the pandemic has also fueled a significant rise in productivity.

“There are fundamental things going on in the economy that argue for stronger productivity growth. Businesses are investing in labor-saving software, baby boomers are retiring, and the workforce is becoming younger,” Zandi said. “That’s a big deal for the economy. It goes to profits, wages, and our ability to address our fiscal policies.”

 

Source: GlobeSt.

 

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Industrial Rents Hit Record High In Q1

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The industrial sector kicked off the year with surging demand outpacing supply for the first time since the first quarter of 2019 and record-high rents hovering at $6.90 per square foot nationally, according to a new report by Cushman & Wakefield.

The first quarter of 2021 showed market absorption of 82.3 million square feet (msf), the most space ever absorbed in a first quarter of any year reported by Cushman & Wakefield and a number that’s up 78.2% over the 46.2 msf reported in the same period last year.  Warehouse and distribution space was the strongest secondary property type with 77.9 msf of net absorption, according to C&W data, with manufacturing and high-tech space also ending the quarter strong.

Positive absorption was noted in 62 of the 81 markets tracked by the firm, and 23 markets posted more than 1 million square feet of positive net absorption. Of those, the Inland Empire, Houston, Atlanta, Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago, Central New Jersey, Milwaukee, Detroit, Phoenix and Columbus accounted for 56.4% of all new completions.

Demand also remained strong, with new leasing activity surpassing 100 msf for the 21st consecutive quarter and clocking in at 193.8 msf, a slight uptick from last quarter’s record high of 194.2 msf. About 87% of all new leasing activity across all industrial product types was centered in the logistics space.

“This level of demand is putting the market on pace to see another year of new leasing activity surpassing 600 msf by year-end, which happened for the first time ever in 2020,” the report notes. “Among the key drivers stimulating robust demand are digital sales, sparking more e-commerce leasing, as well as third-party logistics providers that occupy warehouse/distribution space.”

Until the first quarter of 2021, supply had steadily outpaced overall demand for two years, but Q1 saw that flip, with demand surpassing supply by more than 15.8 msf, which rebalanced the market and drove vacancy down.

Cushman & Wakefield analysts predict solid demand for industrial space will continue in 2021, with net absorption predicted to again surpass 200 msf in 2021 and annual new supply outpacing annual demand.

In particular, “industrial supply is likely to produce around 30% more space than can be absorbed, bringing quality space to the market for occupiers to consider,” the report notes. “New supply will place upward pressure on overall vacancy in the next couple of quarters with the rate rising 30-to-50 bps to between 5.2% and 5.4%.”

 

The firm also predicts asking rents will continue to increase year-over-year, “but new supply and more modest demand will be headwinds that moderate the pace of overall rent growth for the year,” according to the report.

Industrial was CRE’s best-performing asset class in 2020, according to Moody’s Analytics, with 40 straight quarters of positive net absorption reported at year’s end, thanks largely to a dramatic uptick in e-commerce sales and fulfillment. Moody’s predicts that as vacancy rates decline steadily over the next five years, effective rents will rise by 1.4% in 2022.

 

Source: GlobeSt.

 

Industrial Construction Takes Off In Florida Markets

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As industrial took off in 2020, so did new construction in Florida markets. In many of those areas, completions have reached historic levels.

In the second half of 2020, large-scale speculative construction projects or expansions at existing industrial parks were announced in multiple Florida markets, according to Cushman and Wakefield’s “Florida Industrial Construction” report.

There was 15.4 million square feet (MSF) under construction at the end of 2020. In addition, another 29.7 MSF is poised to come online in the next three years.

Out of this new construction, speculative building dominated. At the end of 2020, 5.8 MSF of speculative building had been completed. C&W says Build-to-Suits accounted for 43% of all completions. Many of those speculative projects under construction have yet to attract tenants. By the end of 2020, only 56% achieved any pre-leasing.

“In several cases, developers moved ahead with entitlements hoping to land a sizeable build-to-suit for a new-to-market or expanding tenant,” according to C&W.

Drilling down into individual markets, Miami leads the way with 8.7 million square feet of industrial space proposed. Tampa Bay (6.0 million), Lakeland (5.8 million), Jacksonville (3.7 million), Broward (2.4 million), Orlando (2.0 million) and Palm Beach (1.2 million) are next.

Tampa Bay leads with 3.4 million square feet of industrial space under construction. It is followed by Miami (2.7 million), Broward (2.2 million), Orlando (2.2 million), Jacksonville (1.9 million), Lakeland (1.7 million) and Palm Beach (1.4 million). The highest preleasing was found in Lakeland (91%), Jacksonville (84%), Orlando (60%) and Miami (50%).

In a recent report focusing on Jacksonville, Colliers International found that construction, which represents about 1.9% of the current industrial stock, created a “trickle-up” effect where industrial users are shedding dated space for quality new construction product. The trend has produced a combination of rising industrial vacancy—which hit 5.4% in the fourth quarter—and rising rents—which increased to $5.21 per square foot.

While other asset classes are closely monitoring the vacancy rate—typically because a rising rate leads to tempered if not negative rent growth—Colliers says that increased vacancy is actually a welcome relief in the Jacksonville industrial market. In 2018, the local vacancy rate reached lows of 2%, giving users limited options. Today, the increased rate of 5.4% still points to healthy market conditions, and new construction activity is well matched to demand.

Nationally, industrial space is getting absorbed. In a recent report, Moody’s Analytics said the warehouse/distribution space absorbed 35.4 million square feet in Q4, its highest mark since Q1 2019 when 70.7 million square feet were absorbed.

Construction for the new warehouse/distribution space fell to 25.8 million square feet in Q4 after hitting 38.2 million square feet added in Q3, according to Moody’s Analytics. The space has posted an average of 36.8 million square feet of new inventory added per quarter in the prior six quarters.

 

Source: GlobeSt.

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