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Why CRE Is Proving More Stable Than Stocks, According To One Expert

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The stock market has been on a tumultuous ride as of late, making commercial real estate even more attractive to investors looking for stability amid the chaos.

“I think it gives everyone a little heartburn to see the S&P 500 fall by more than 6% in a little over a week,” says Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang. “But the stock market has been on this trend for awhile.”

Specifically, the stock market is down by 10% over the last month and by 24% from the peak at the beginning of this year. And while it gained 27% in 2021, the losses this year have basically wiped out last year’s gains. The CRE market also had big pricing gains last year, according to Marcus & Millichap data, led by industrial at 17.9%, self-storage at 13.6% and apartment at 8.1% The difference?

“While the stock market peaked at the end of 2021, “commercial real estate kept going,” Chang says.

In the first half of 2022, the average industrial prices went up by 13%, self-storage went up by 10.5%, and hotels increased by 13.7%. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2022 the stock market fell by 20%.  The caveat, however, is that pricing is typically locked in 90 days before a deal closes, meaning second quarter pricing numbers were probably locked in before the Fed began aggressively raising rates.

Chang says the Fed’s press conference after its latest hike on September 21 “will probably impact” CRE pricing, “but the impact will be far less severe than what we’re seeing on Wall Street.”

“In general, CRE values tend to move more slowly than the stock market. They also tend to be less dramatic,” Chang says, adding that quarter-over-quarter pricing swings over the last 20 years have been “enormous” while commercial real estate pricing has largely remained steady.

Total annual returns also drive this point home, with CRE delivering a compound annual growth rate of 7.8% since 2000, beating the S&P at 5.3%.

“It still has its ups and downs, but its amplitude tends to be very modest compared to the stock market,” Chang says.

 

Source: GlobeSt.

CRE’s Shockingly Strong Third Quarter

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CRE shattered performance records in the third quarter, driven by household wealth and record demand.

“Some of the results are shocking,” Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang says. “I anticipated strong commercial real estate momentum in the third quarter as the lockdowns had pretty much ended, new households were being formed, spending had increased and companies were shifting their positioning toward stronger growth⁠—but I was still surprised. At the start of Q3, many companies were taking a wait-and-see approach, and leasing was soft.”

But despite that, about 26 million square feet of space was leased in Q3, on par with the quarterly pace of demand from 2018 and 2019. That brought vacancy down 10 basis points to 16.1%.

“Expectations for retail were positive going into Q3, but I don’t think they were very optimistic,” Chang says.

But the sector outperformed, filling 28 million square feet of space in the quarter and posting the best quarterly absorption numbers since 2017. Total occupied retail square footage is now officially back above pre-COVID levels, and vacancy fell by 20 basis points. Average rents also rose 2% year-over-year.

“I wouldn’t say the retail real estate sector is crushing it, but compared to most people’s perception, retail is outperforming expectations and also surprised to the upside,” Chang says.

As for apartments, 273,700 units were filled in the quarter, a record absorption number for the sector. Developers are on pace to deliver a record 400,000 units this year, and the national vacancy rate hit 2.8% for the quarter. Rents are also up 11.2% year-over-year.

“I don’t think anyone was expecting an all-time low vacancy rate and double-digit rent growth,” Chang says.

And in the industrial sector, rent growth was up 3% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year, in alignment with most forecasts. The surprise? Absorption: 157 million square feet were absorbed in the quarter, bringing the annual total to 364 million square feet so far.  That shatters 2016 highs.

“The third quarter delivered better than expected results with some record-breaking space demand numbers,” Chang says. This will likely add more fuel to investor optimism, especially in the office and retail sectors where expectations have been more modest.”

Chang has said he expects the momentum continue into the end of 2021. Supply and demand trends remain favorable, and active investors continue to price strong growth into their underwriting, particularly for industrial, self-storage and apartment properties.

 

Source: GlobeSt.