Tag Archive for: logistics sites

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What A Manufacturing ‘Supercycle’ Means For Real Estate Leaders

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The U.S. is at the cusp of a manufacturing supercycle that could reshape the global investment landscape and greatly impact the real estate industry.

This manufacturing resurgence gained momentum with the “America first” emphasis and 2018 tariffs on Chinese goods. The Biden administration continued restricting capital inflows to China, which further encouraged bringing supply chains to the U.S. This drive is bolstered by legislative acts that provide nearly $2 trillion in domestic investment and incentives: the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act for clean energy, the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act for semiconductor production and the $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for sustainable infrastructure.

Consequently, U.S. manufacturing construction outlays have surged to $196.1 billion as of July. The government’s initiatives to bolster domestic manufacturing have unleashed a wave of investment that could reshape supply chains during the next decade and create a significant tailwind for the real estate sector.

Manufacturing Supercycle And Regional Beneficiaries

From my perspective, the American South could be a primary beneficiary of manufacturing investments. Texas, in particular, has received a disproportionate share of investment, with firms such as Samsung, Texas Instruments (paywall) and Tesla already commencing expansion plans that are expected to create thousands of new jobs during the coming years.

The Laredo, Texas, border gateway is a primary point for goods shipments coming to the U.S., with a reported 37% of truck container crossings and 46% of rail containers entering in 2021 through that corridor. Additionally, Laredo registered a 12% year-over-year increase in commerce in 2023. From my view, this heavy traffic has helped increase the demand for industrial space in the central Texas corridor, including San Antonio and Austin.

Xebec, a developer focused on industrial properties, revealed plans for a “3,300-acre logistics and manufacturing center” on a 32,000-acre site northeast of Austin, according to the Dallas Morning News. This development is one example of many seeking to fill the demand for industrial and residential space near multi-billion-dollar projects like Samsung’s chip factory in Taylor and Tesla’s Gigafactory. The impact of these developments will be felt across the Austin-San Antonio corridor and could generate significant economic output and position the region as a hub for advanced manufacturing and technology.

Florida is also poised to benefit from a surge in advanced manufacturing investment. With the NeoCity district positioning Orlando as one of the top cities for STEM talent in the U.S., the state’s prospects are promising.

Moreover, it is expected the region will see a substantial economic boost from several major infrastructure and technology projects currently underway. Among these is Brightline‘s high-speed rail initiative, which links cities like Miami and West Palm Beach to Orlando. This connectivity will enhance commuter access to the Orlando market, catalyzing growth in central Florida. A press release by the company said the rail project generated 10,000 new jobs during its construction phase. Given the current growth trajectory, Florida’s population is estimated to rise by 3.2 million by 2030, according to the Florida Apartment Association. To accommodate this surge, the state will require over 570,000 new housing units, the FAA also said.

Elsewhere in the south, companies like Toyota, Hyundai, BMW and Albemarle are investing billions of dollars in what’s been called the new “Battery Belt.” The auto manufacturing industry has expanded from the traditional markets in the Midwest, which could lead to the creation of tens of thousands of jobs in states like Georgia, Tennessee and North and South Carolina.

Beyond the U.S., Mexico stands to benefit from the regionalization of supply chains, given the existing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, proximity to U.S. population hubs, affordable labor and ample land.

What This Means For The Real Estate Sector

The manufacturing sector has one of the highest job multipliers, as a manufacturing plant typically fosters demand for suppliers, transportation services and maintenance providers. From my perspective, one of the ripple effects of the revival in domestic manufacturing will be an increased demand for residential real estate throughout the southern states with proximity to ports. Investments in clean energy, infrastructure and semiconductor production will stimulate large-scale job creation throughout these states, particularly in higher-wage sectors.

Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro is on a trajectory to add 150,000 to 200,000 jobs annually during the coming years, which would be an increase of roughly 4% per year and almost twice the pace of job creation before the pandemic. The conventional theory assumes that one new housing unit is needed for every 1.5 new jobs created. Permits authorized in 2022 for the DFW metro only amounted to about 76,000, creating an annual deficit of roughly 23,000 to 56,000 housing units. This comes at a time when the U.S. already faces a nationwide housing shortage and underscores the need to develop new housing units to meet excess demand.

As the nation intensifies its commitment to domestic manufacturing and the states in the Southeast attract vast industrial and residential investments, there will be significant demand for new housing and industrial space that will not be met by current construction projections and permitted developments. It is important for policymakers, real estate developers and investors to focus on these areas of growth and plan ahead in order to avoid rapidly rising rents and housing costs.

Additionally, real estate developers and investors should consider how they can capitalize on the upcoming capital investment wave. Housing developments generally take two to four years to materialize from inception. Investors and developers should pay attention to the mentioned growth corridors. Additionally, it is critical that developers engage with local municipalities to stay informed on upcoming manufacturing and infrastructure investments to ensure there is sufficient housing available when these investments come to fruition.

 

Source: Forbes

 

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Middle Market CRE Investment Is Ripe With Opportunity

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There is no shortage of capital searching for opportunities in commercial real estate.

In most cases, this has generated high competition, compressed cap rate and pushed asset pricing.

The middle market sector—defined as deals valued at $20 million to $50 million—is a rare sweet spot for CRE investment. Too small for big institutions and too large for many high-net worth individuals, the market segment offers plenty of opportunity.

The middle market is also the playground for Walker & Dunlop Investment Partners, who is finding a lot of success in the sector.

“The middle market happens to be the largest portion of the commercial real estate market,” Sam Isaacson, the president of Walker & Dunlop Investment Partners, tells GlobeSt.com. “It makes up the majority of the real estate in this country. A lot of that real estate is owned by baby boomers, and a lot of them are getting older and are making changes to their real estate holdings.”

Equity capital is also not interested in middle market investments. These players have too much capital to deploy to consider a middle market deal.

“A lot of the institutional owners of commercial real estate, like the pension funds and the endowments, have significant capital to deploy at any given time,” says Isaacson. “When they are looking to deploy capital into real estate, they are not going to look at a $4 million or $5 million equity check on a middle market asset. They are focused on deploying $20 million to $25 million at a time. We see that over and over again. There is less capital chasing those middle market deals.”

As a result, family offices and other mid-tier private investors end up transacting in the middle market space.

“That isn’t to say that we don’t see competitors, but it isn’t nearly as saturated as assets that are $100 million-plus in size,” says Isaacson.

While the price tag is a primary marker of a middle market asset, quality of tenancy and asset functionality are also characteristics to look for in a middle market asset.

“We have been really successful at investing in the older vintage ex-manufacturing facilities in blue-collar markets in the Midwest,” says Isaacson. “We have done really well at repositioning those assets into warehouse and logistics assets from some dysfunctional use. That has been really successful.” Walker & Dunlop Investment Partners is also investing in neighborhood centers with mom-and-pop ownership. “We are fairly bullish on them,” says Isaacson, adding that office is the only asset in the middle markets that the firm is eschewing. “We don’t think the COVID story has run its course.”

 

Source: GlobeSt

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Investors ‘Back With A Vengeance’ As Warehouse Demand Surges

As shopping centre and high street landlords survey the wreckage left by coronavirus, warehouse owners are facing a different problem: how to deal with record demand.

The pandemic has pushed more consumers online, prompting a rush for warehouse space, from small “last-mile” delivery sites near city centres to cavernous “big-box” distribution centres

Amazon has led the charge. The company, which has added an eye-watering $600bn to its market capitalisation this year as sales have jumped, is inking lease agreements on mammoth warehouses around the world. It has committed to opening 33 “fulfilment centres” in the US this year, an additional 35m square feet spread from Atlanta to Arizona.

The US ecommerce giant is also the incoming tenant of a 2.3m square foot warehouse on London’s outskirts, according to people with knowledge of that deal. Amazon’s sprawling expansion is one reason why investors are sensing opportunity.

The take-up of UK logistics space hit record levels in the second quarter of the year, according to property group CBRE — despite the lockdown.

“Following a quiet few months after coronavirus hit, investors are back with a vengeance”, said David Sleath, chief executive of Segro, the dominant logistics company in the UK and a sizeable participant in Europe which last week said it had lifted first-half profit. “If you are a global institutional investor and you want exposure to commercial real estate, this is an attractive place to be.”

A decade ago, ecommerce accounted for 6.7 per cent of all retail sales in the UK, according to the Office for National Statistics. By February, the month before the outbreak, the figure was 19 per cent. By May it had hit 33 per cent. In April, 27 per cent of purchases were made online in the US, according to the commerce department and Bank of America.

Until recently, the most desirable property to own was a traditional mall. Malls had a natural moat, being difficult to develop and serving a catchment area

“That share was likely to diminish as stores reopened,” cautioned Mr Sleath, “but incoming tenants were looking to crystallise that temporary spike into increased capacity”.

“There’s a wall of cash coming into our sector,” said Marcus de Minckwitz, an investment adviser on European logistics at Savills property.

Every extra £1bn spent online means the addition of almost 900,000 square feet of logistics space, according to CBRE. New York-listed Prologis, the world’s largest warehouse company, estimates that 1.2m sq ft of space is needed for every $1bn in ecommerce sales in the US.

Gains from ecommerce tenants far outweigh the losses from bricks-and-mortar retailers, according to CBRE, one reason why Blackstone, the world’s largest private property owner, has described logistics as its “highest conviction” sector.

“Until recently, the most desirable property to own was a traditional mall. Malls had a natural moat, being difficult to develop and serving a catchment area . . . Logistics for a long time was viewed as the other end of the spectrum: not so exciting and more easily replicable,” said Ken Caplan, global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. The rise of ecommerce had shifted that whole dynamic.”

In June 2010, Segro’s market capitalisation was less than £2bn, according to data from S&P Global. Now at £11.8bn, it is comfortably the UK’s largest listed property group; UK shopping centre owner Intu, meanwhile, has collapsed. The value of US peer Prologis has climbed a fifth this year to roughly $77.5bn.

Dozens of shopping centres in the US are being turned into industrial sites, according to CBRE, which says Covid-19 will accelerate the trend. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon was in talks with mall owner Simon Property to repurpose department stores as distribution hubs.

Thanks to the ecommerce boom, CBRE predicts there will be demand for 333m sq ft of new space in the US by 2022 — treble its previous estimate — and expects rents to grow by about 6 per cent a year. Amazon is not the only eager tenant. Fashion retailers with a limited online presence have desperately sought space to park stock they could not shift in the pandemic.

“They already have warehouses full of clothes, then next season’s come in and they can’t stack it,” according to one UK property agent.

“But while some warehouse owners had suffered hits to rental income from retail tenants in particular, investors bidding for new sites were achieving few discounts,” said Mr de Minckwitz.

“Some indiscriminate investors were likely to get caught out, warned Mr Sleath. “There will be more retail fatalities, that will mean empty warehousing as well as shopping centres. It’s very important to think about where you place your money.”

Asset manager PGIM bought five German logistics sites last month and said it was optimistic that demand would only grow. Private equity firms are piling in too: as well as Blackstone, Meyer Bergman plans to raise €750m to invest in Europe.

“Investors needing long and strong sources of income, such as sovereign wealth funds and European pension funds, were also attracted by the sector,” said James Dunlop, a fund manager at Tritax Big Box.

“But some might come unstuck,” cautioned Adrian Benedict, head of real estate solutions at Fidelity. “There’s a flood of capital from retail to logistics. Inevitably, with every crisis, you see those poorly considered deals at the end of the cycle are the ones you really regret.”

 

 

Source: SFBJ