Tag Archive for: cap rates

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The Federal Reserve’s Impact On Commercial Real Estate Explained

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Amid its tinkering with the interest rate to tamp inflation down, the Fed has identified commercial real estate as one of the biggest risks to financial stability.

So where does that leave private lenders?

Mortgage Professional America reached out to Jeff Holzmann, COO of RREAF Holdings, to learn more. RREAF Holdings is a private real estate investment firm with more than $5 billion in assets.

But first some context: Large banks have pulled back from commercial real estate financing, causing smaller, regional banks to become more exposed to the travails of the industry. Given the freefall nature of the market, this creates a perfect storm for a “doom loop.”

And yet Holzmann seemed rather confident in his company’s approach to choppier waters.

“I think the obvious elephant in the room is the interest rate,” Holzmann said during a telephone interview. “Any large-scale commercial real estate developer like us is basically subject to the same metric. Some companies are bigger, smaller, but nobody has any type of silver bullet. We all do deals the same way.

But things are changed now.

“Obviously these days, the interest rates are what we would consider high,” Holzmann said. “Not necessarily historically high – if you had been around in the 80s and 90s, you remember higher rates – but they’re certainly higher than they were in 2015 through 2018. Pretty much everybody – unless they’re a liar or an idiot – is on hold right now.”

Living In An Age Of The Inverted Curve Yield

It’s a matter of economics.

Holzmann explined: “In terms of new acquisitions of income-producing properties such as multifamily, the main reason for that is simply because we are currently in what is known as an inverted curve yield – the cost of debt is higher than what you’re yielding from that property; your cap on costs is higher than your cap rate. Basically, you’re working for the bank. Any money you make on these properties – on average, there are always exceptions – is really going to the bank.”

So how does this movie end?

“It ends just like anything else in economics, in one of two ways,” Holzmann said. “Either through supply and demand. One thing that can happen is that interest rates – and I keep my fingers crossed, but keeping my hopes up – will decline; they will go back down, and there seems to be a consensus that this won’t happen quickly, and it won’t happen abruptly. So this is going to take a significant amount of time. The other thing that can happen in the next 12 to 18 months is that you’re going to see commercial real estate operators that basically can’t hold their properties. They’re running out of money, they’re crushed under the cost of the debt, and they are forced to sell.”

If it’s just a few properties succumbing in that way, some investor will swoop in and take it.

“But if you’re talking dozens, maybe 100s, every year, then that starts to change the economics a little bit and people might start selling at a lower price to avoid this kind of crash,” Holzmann said. “So eventually, I think the market will find equilibrium. But how is that going to come about? Through a change in the interest rate? Or a change in the supply and demand of vendors having to offload those assets? That I don’t know. But I do know that history teaches us that the market has to go back to some kind of equilibrium.”

Too Big To Want To Fail

Given today’s economic scenarios, there are strategies companies can adopt to mitigate risks and/or capitalize on opportunities. Holzmann outlined the way RREAF approaches things.

“RREAF is a large, institutional kind of operation,” Holzmann began. “We’re not like one of these younger entrepreneurs that can take crazy risks and make a killing. That’s not us. We’re a large business with a lot of investors and pension fund money, so we have to be very, very methodical about how we approach things.”

So what is RREAF’s approach?

“The way we approach it is by hedging the risk,” Holzmann said. “We prefer to be in a situation where we paid for a rate cap and regretted spending the money, as opposed to being in a situation where we took on the risk without a rate cap and now, in so many words, we’re screwed because we have to pay so much money in debt and this whole thing doesn’t make sense. Companies like RREAF don’t take that kind of risk.”

Formed in 2010, Dallas-based RREAF Holdings is a privately held commercial real estate firm that deals in the acquisition, development, asset management, ownership repositioning and financing of complex real estate projects throughout the US.

 

Source: MPA Magazine

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Industrial Outdoor Storage Rises In Popularity Among Institutional Investors

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Industrial outdoor storage (IOS) is emerging as an increasingly popular property sector among institutional and other types of investors.

Interest in the sector ramped up during the pandemic as space was needed for container storage to relieve backlogged ports. Estimates from the experts WMRE interviewed suggest that the U.S. IOS market, which represents a niche within the larger industrial asset class, ranges somewhere between $130 billion and $200 billion in value.

Zoned for industrial use, IOS sites typically house vehicles, construction equipment, building materials and even shipping containers on an interim basis and range in size from two to 10 acres, often including a small building. The sector has been referred to as a “beautiful ugly duckling” by Green Street’s Vince Tibone since the properties are just lots with storage containers and construction equipment that have delivered “exceptional” returns over the last three years and brought in more institutional investors for funds raising hundreds of millions of dollars to target IOS.

While the sector is not immune to the same forces that are affecting other property types in the current environment, Tibone said he remains bullish on IOS over the next five to 10 years. Investor demand for IOS has been buoyed by strong recent operating results, favorable long-term supply/demand dynamics and a minimal cap-ex burden with an option to use the land for a higher and better use at some future time.

IOS sites located in infill submarkets in particular can deliver risk-adjusted returns “that are superior to those available on most other commercial real estate investments, including traditional industrial,” Tibone said. However, the fragmented, non-institutional ownership structure of the sector today makes it difficult to invest at scale, he noted.

“IOS portfolios do not come on the market often and the best returns are likely available through one-off deals, where there could be operational upside left on the table from the prior owner,” Tibone said. “Those with the patience and wherewithal to aggregate infill IOS sites over time should be rewarded with robust total returns relative to other property types.”

Among investors that are currently raising funds and targeting acquisitions in the IOS marketplace is EverWest Real Estate Investors, a Denver-headquartered real estate investment advisor with $5.2 billion in assets under management, including in the industrial, multifamily, office and retail sectors.

EverWest operates open-end funds and three single–client accounts with industrial strategies focused on IOS. The average size of the deals it has completed ranges between $10 million and $25 million.

So far in 2023, EverWest acquired two IOS sites—39.6 acres south of Atlanta for $12 million and 4.12 acres in Miami for $12.5 million, according to John Maurer, EverWest’s senior managing director and head of portfolio management. In May, the firm also invested in an industrial asset in Carlson, Calif. that includes acreage that can be used for IOS.

Part of the appeal of the sector is that when U.S. industrial inventory tightens and rents rise, IOS sites rise in value as they become reliever locations for a wide range of logistics activity, Maurer noted. In addition, in a market where industrial assets are still often priced at a premium, with cap rates as low as 4.5%, an IOS site adjacent to such a traditional industrial asset will often sell at a cap rate that’s 50 basis points higher. Rental rates in the sector have also been rising by 3.5% to 4.0% a year, according to Maurer.

EverWest’s open-end fund, the Open End Diversified Core Equity Fund in the NFI-ODCE Index, has a target return of 10%. Like Tibone, Maurer noted that the IOS marketplace is less institutionalized than regular industrial and has more fragmented ownership.

“We think because it’s difficult to acquire these sites that are smaller, if you aggregate portfolios in a target market that there’s going to be a cap rate compression,” Maurer said.

As a result, EverWest aims to aggregate a number of acquisitions from different sellers to build up its IOS holdings. Over the past 12 to 18 months, the firm has invested about $200 million in the IOS sector and it hopes to double that volume in the next 12 to 18 months. EverWest is also planning to launch an enhanced fund with a higher return strategy in the near future that will have a significant IOS component, according to Maurer. The firm is hoping to build off its current investor base of public and private pension plans, foundations and endowments, insurance companies and financial advisors for the fund, Maurer said.

However, Maurer admitted that EverWest’s transaction volume is currently about 15% off what it was a year ago because the increase in interest rates has made the firm more selective in making new purchases.

“There are some compelling opportunities in the marketplace in terms of attractive return potential, given where rates are today versus they were 12 months ago,” Maurer said. “We always want to look at where pricing is going and take advantage of correctly priced opportunities. What we see is sellers ultimately capitulate and need liquidity, so they will sell at market-clearing prices based on our new model for interest rates in the current environment.”

Assuming a leverage level of 40% to 40%, EverWest’s investments can deliver gross returns of 12% to 14% over a seven- to 10-year period, Maurer noted. That would require a barbell approach of doing straight up five-year lease IOS deals, he said. There would also need to be some value-add component for redevelopment in its strategy. About 20% of the IOS marketplace is about adding a warehouse over time, Maurer noted.

Change Is Coming

In the meantime, the number of institutional players involved in the sector is growing. For example, Brooklyn-based Zenith IOS, a builder and owner of outdoor storage properties, has partnered with institutional investors advised by J.P. Morgan Global Alternatives, to buy hundreds of millions of dollars of IOS properties last year. In February, J.P. Morgan and Zenith IOS announced a $700 million joint venture to buy more IOS assets.

Another active participant in the marketplace is Alterra IOS, which is part of Philadelphia-based Alterra Property Group, a real estate investment and development company that, according to reports, made more than $850 million in acquisitions over the past year.

In its most recent announcement, dated June 22nd, the firm expanded its presence in Las Vegas by acquiring a six-acre site for $7 million—its third in the marketplace.

Alterra declined to comment on its current fundraising effort, instead referring to a public filing from the Ventura County Employees’ Retirement Association (VCERA). The filing contained a recommendation to commit $35 million from the pension fund to Alterra’s IOS Venture III fund. Alterra’s goal has been to raise $750 million for the fund targeting IOS properties, according to IPE Real Assets. A previous Alterra fund raised $524 million in 2022, exceeding the firm’s goal of $400 million.

IOS Venture III will target smaller, infill IOS assets operating on triple net leases. Part of the value proposition of these assets, according to VCERA’s filing, is that they are typically owned by single owner-operators and have escaped the attention of most institutional investors. Alterra also plans to leverage its in-house management and leasing expertise to pursue value-add strategies for the assets. The firm estimates that it will generate from 30% to 40% of its total returns through the assets’ current cash flow, creating annual cash flow yields of 6% to 8%.

The fund has an eight-year horizon, with two one-year extension options, and will offer a preferred return to investors of 9%, with a carried interest of 20%. The fund’s net IRR target is between 14% and 16%, with a leverage ratio of 65%.

In addition to VCERA, Alterra’s equity investors include other public pension funds, foundations, endowments, insurance companies and family offices, both domestic and foreign, according to Managing Director Matthew Pfeiffer.

“Investors are finding IOS an attractive proposition right now because, unlike with a number of other real estate assets, supply is structurally muted, with municipalities not being incentivized to add new zoned land for outdoor storage,” Pfeiffer said.

He also mentioned the attraction of low cap-ex.

“Beyond the favorable supply and demand dynamics, IOS also benefits from being a very low capital expenditure business translating into low frictional leasing costs to put new tenants in the space,” Pfeiffer noted. “Lastly, the tenant profile is largely credit and national, under a triple-net lease structure that further entices institutional capital’s interest in the space,”

According to BJ Feller, managing director and senior vice president at Northmarq, cap rates on traditional industrial properties have gotten so aggressive in recent years that institutional capital was looking for opportunities with a similar profile, but more attractive cap rates.

“Once they’ve been able to establish their credibility and track record in the segment, we’ve seen operators have great access to the capital sources who want to play in this asset class,” Feller said.

He added that while equity inflows to the sector have “cooled to a certain degree” on a year-over-year basis, they remain robust relative to other property types.

“Most of the decline has been a reaction to caution that cap rates may be going mildly higher and offer better acquisition opportunities in the months ahead,” Fuller said.

 

Source: Wealth Management

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Four Things You Might Be Underestimating About Industrial Real Estate

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As with so many areas of real estate, there was an operational and profit high during the last few years that was like an industry getting drunk and then waking up with a headache.

Looking back can create regret, but here are some things that MSCI in its Q1 2023 U.S. Industrial Capital Trends Report suggests are easy to underestimate.

1. Immediate Comparisons Are Unrealistic

Would you compare a little kid running around with a blanket tied around the shoulders like a cape to an actual superhero? Of course not. Nor would you reasonably undergo a once-in-a-blue-moon experience and then expect that should become an everyday event. That is the difficulty in looking at typical year-over-year business comparisons in industrial.

“Industrial deal volume hit a record high of $40.6b for any first quarter in 2022,” MSCI wrote. “The next-highest first quarter period was in 2020 when $34.4b traded. Any comparisons of the current quarter to these record high points for the market are going to look harsh. In truth, the market simply slipped back closer to a normal level at the start of 2023.”

According to MSCI’s analysis, average first quarter deal volume from 2005 to 2019 is $11.2 billion. This year’s Q1 transaction volume fits in with the past.

2. The Industry Was Already Gearing Up For Higher Rates

“It can be difficult to think in terms of anything aside from Covid given the collective trauma experienced, but back in the fall of 2019, investors began to adapt to a rising rate environment,” the analysis said, remembering that concerns about rates existed before the pandemic.

CRE professionals attending industry conferences at the time were concerned about the Federal Reserve tightening its balance sheet. But it had been more than a decade since the Global Financial Crisis. Realistically, how long would the Fed put off cleaning its inflated balance sheet?

“Investors wanted to focus more on asset types that had low capex relative to the NOI for a rising interest rate environment, and the industrial sector matched this need.”

3. Investors Were Under-Allocated

The MSCI report suggests that investors hadn’t allocated enough of their capital to the industrial sector. This was true for multifamily, as they reported in a separate publication.

“It is not yet clear that investors have the allocations that they desire as there are many moving parts in place. But with the RCA CPPI for industrial slowing to only a 3.3% gain from a year earlier and volume back to average levels, one might make that case.”

4. Cap Rates Are Up, But Not That Much

One of the stories floating around is the return of cap rates. They are up some, but that’s in comparison to the depths they visited in 2022. Cap rates are nowhere nearly as high as pre-pandemic levels.

“The RCA Hedonic Series cap rate reached5.5% in Q1 2023, up from a low of 5.2% seen in Q1 2022 before interest rates surged. Cap rates have increased only 30 bps in a time when the 10yr UST has increased 170 bps.”

 

Source: GlobeSt

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Industrial Cap Rates Expected To Rise But Outlook For Seasoned Investors Remains Strong

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Industrial has been on quite a tear over the past few years, as changes in consumer behavior have driven demand for more logistics and fulfillment facilities in key markets.

And according to one industry expert, the sector should stay a favored asset class for experienced investors, despite rising capital costs.

“Post-pandemic consumer behavior has changed and the rate of growth in ecommerce has slowed which has already led to pullbacks by some companies,” says Greg Burns, Managing Director at Stonebriar Commercial Finance, noting Amazon’s recent announcements regarding its industrial portfolio. “Demand for industrial though was driven by other factors as well including a move toward onshoring and the disruption of just in time supply chains.”

With that said, however, Burns said “depending on the what and the where, I would not be surprised to see cap rates widen another 50 to 100 basis points.”

“The cost of debt and equity capital have increased and cap rate hurdles have increased for institutional buyers,” Burns says, adding that he recently saw an increase of 100 basis points in an appraisal for a property in a market where his firm closed a deal six months ago.

Burns will discuss what’s happening in the capital markets in a session at next month’s GlobeSt Industrial conference in Scottsdale, Ariz. He says Stonebriar’s definition of industrial includes not just warehouse and distribution facilities, but manufacturing, life sciences, cold storage and data centers as well, and notes that “each of those sub-categories have their own dynamic and, broadly, all are growing.”

“We prefer properties with multi-modal access, especially those near ports, with most opportunities we’ve seen recently being to the southeast of a line drawn from Baltimore to Phoenix,” Burns says. “We also pay attention to outdoor storage capacity as that has become a greater consideration for tenants. There have been several announcements of new manufacturing sites relating to microchip and electric vehicles which should lead to demand for new logistics properties nearby.”

As the costs of debt capital rise, Burns says Stonebriar’s underwriting will continue to focus on the sponsor, asset and market and “that won’t change.”

“We do few spec development deals and will likely be more granular on understanding the demand/supply side of a respective market,” Burns says.

Ultimately, a recession seems likely and Burns says the changing economic landscape will have “varying impacts” on investors and individual markets alike.

“From our perspective, there will be a premium on a sponsor’s experience and capacity,” Burns says. “I anticipate industrial will remain a favored asset class for investors although those with less experience in the sector could pull back until the economy recovers.”

 

Source: GlobeSt.

 

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Inflation, Interest Rates And The Industrial Market

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Pesky, lingering inflation that is higher than we’ve seen in years, along with six interest rate hikes totaling 375 basis points since the beginning of the year have had varying degrees of impact on all sectors in commercial real estate.

The speculation of further hikes later this year and in early 2023 doesn’t help.

Industrial real estate remains one of the darling sectors, though it is being tested by current economic conditions.

Four industrial real estate professionals, including owners, investors and brokers, three of them based in Chicago and one based in Houston, participated in a roundtable discussion, giving their perspectives on inflation, interest rates and industrial real estate. The participants: Alfredo Gutierrez, Founder, SparrowHawk; Rick Nevarez, Director of Acquisitions, Clear Height Properties; Kelly Disser, Executive Vice President, NAI Hiffman; and Hugh Williams, Principal and Managing Broker, MK Asset Brokerage.

What are the implications of the five 2022 rate hikes on transaction/acquisition activity?

Alfredo Gutierrez: It’s a challenging time as there are more investors stepping to the sideline. This means that if you are selling an asset today you might get three or four offers versus a dozen one year ago. On the  buy side, if investors have cash or lines of credit tied to a low rate, they are utilizing their resources. The fundamentals on the income side of the equation, because of rent growth, are still strong—that’s factual. Some are putting down their pencils because they are concerned about the potential for a recession and whether we’ll see the same levels of rent growth.

In reality, cap rates are a function of how much capital there is to invest into something. The question is how much dry powder remains on the sideline. We’re seeing an erosion of capital on the retail side and people starting to get squeezed. However, banks, life companies and institutions still have capital to place, and I believe it will flow into industrial.

Rick Nevarez: Activity has slowed, but it hasn’t come to a grinding halt. Overall, we continue to see deal activity and are expecting a big fourth quarter. It’s like airplane turbulence:  some respond with white-knuckle gripping of the arm rest while others acknowledge it’s taking place and go about their business. It’s really a matter of understanding the fundamentals of the real estate and how the current economic environment impacts those fundamentals.

Kelly Disser: It’s an interesting time with different groups being impacted in different ways. Owner occupants, private investors, institutional investors—all have acted or reacted differently. The demand for industrial space and leasing absorption today is still very strong. Inventory/vacancy is at an all-time low. As a result we’re seeing rent growth like we haven’t seen before. In certain underwriting acquisitions, we are seeing the impact of interest rates on values somewhat mitigated by rent growth and rents trending even higher than what we see today. The equation is evolving.  The development and investment sales markets have reacted and adjusted. Those with large funds have the ability to remain active and aggressive—and they are distinguishing themselves. Investors/developers who are sourcing capital on a deal by deal basis may be having issues in the current environment.

Hugh Williams: There was a point this summer when large institutional investors essentially said, “pencils down on all deals,” unless it was a perfectly placed asset/tenant combination in the middle of the fairway. Investors and developers are proceeding with haunting caution because at some point the math does not work.  You cannot acquire an asset when you underwrite debt costs that are greater than your projected return. That is problematic.

But we need to remember we’ve been in a low-rate environment for a long time, an environment that couldn’t last forever; and there are geopolitical events taking place that are also important considerations.  I have heard people say they are pulling back but some of them aren’t sure why. Overall, leasing activity is quite strong, and things are still moving forward particularly in select markets and micro-markets.

How are the rate hikes changing the flow of acquisitions and dispositions, if at all? And are they impacting different size buildings differently?

Nevarez: Interest rate hikes have pushed some buyers and sellers to the sidelines. But we are still buyers, looking at a variety of opportunities including value-add acquisitions. Sometimes you have to tweak underwriting to have a deal pencil out and make sense. Now more than ever, you need to understand ALL elements of the transaction, and what is motivating buyers and sellers.

Gutierrez: The effect based on size is really a case by case situation. But in general, if you had two assets where essential building characteristics except for size were essentially the same, the smaller asset would feel the pinch more. While smaller buildings are more likely to have shorter term leases, it will depend on the tenant roster and the lease terms. At the same time, because the rent roll may turnover more quickly, smaller buildings may be able to adjust pricing more quickly, too.

Disser: Interest rate hikes are impacting the flow of acquisitions and dispositions. The  pace has slowed in the second half of 2022 from what we saw the prior 18 months. But it is all relative, the first 18 months coming out of covid we saw activity levels, values and rents not seen before—in Chicago and across the country. An adjustment was needed.  There was simply too much money chasing too few assets:  the definition of inflation. Impact varies from case-to-case, according to location, submarket, or quality of asset.

Williams: My hypothesis is that if you go to a smaller, non-institutional building, it’s generally a different type of buyer, with a different mentality. For example, an operator like Blackstone is taking the long view. They are likely focused on main and main locations. When they go to build, they are focused on operating their platform as a business, not necessarily the conditions of the moment or focused on a near to short term exit. Smaller owners may be at greater risk—real and emotional—based on being prisoners of the moment (as we all are).  The short stroke is big boats are better ballasted against storms. Small boats get tossed about.

In other asset classes—like office and multifamily—some say that activity has slowed as the market looks for a re-set. To what degree is that occurring in the industrial sector, and are there other considerations (i.e., size, etc.)?

Nevarez: It’s really hard to say that any asset class is recession-proof, but industrial certainly is close. If the market was overbuilt, the impact might be different. There may be a scaling back and slight reset of pricing, but it’s not the same as other sectors because demand has been so strong. Our portfolio, for example, is 96% leased due to lack of product in the markets we own and operate in.

Gutierrez: A lot of people have put pens down, so to speak. Unless you need to place capital, you won’t. With some of the overall questions that exist, and fewer offers to consider, there isn’t necessarily a lot of pricing clarity. As 2022 wraps up our volumes will be down, particularly for the second half of the year.

Disser: It is always dangerous to generalize. The idea of a price reset isn’t absolute in industrial, as it may be in other sectors. In the industrial sector I think value equations are evolving, given rent growth. We see absorption, leasing and rental rates continuing to increase. The user/occupier clients of mine generally are operating businesses that are still strong and eyeing expansion.  In addition to scrutinizing interest rates, many are watching how lenders behave—as many have slowed loan origination activity. For some groups, the ability to secure the capital for a project in some cases is as much of a question as the cost of the capital.  If you lose your equity partner or can’t get a loan—you’re out.

Williams: There is a group that has been waiting 5-6, 10 years for a reset! The sky is continually falling.  Say it long enough and eventually you will be right. Pricing may fluctuate from its peak, but I don’t anticipate an incredible swing. The reality is that developers are much more rational today and have been that way for the last decade. What is going on in the interest rate environment forces additional austerity measures onto industrial developers.

All of the various elements at play lead me to believe that the sky will not fall, maybe a little rain, but rainwater is one of the keys to life—ask California.

How are higher interest rates impacting user sales/acquisitions? Are the higher rates making them any more or less likely to look at renting versus owning?

Nevarez: Higher Interest rates make it harder for users to come up with the capital to purchase an asset. Most users would rather place their capital in their actual business operations (machinery, employees, etc.).  Current owners may also look at their overall business plan to determine where they may need additional capital and find creative ways on how to get that capital. They look at their actual real estate as an opportunity to raise capital—through a sale leaseback—and to Clear Height (landlords) as a way to get that capital, creating a win-win situation for both parties.

Gutierrez: One of the factors that pushes users to consider an acquisition is the upward trajectory of rental rates. They figure they might as well buy. But in the current interest rate environment, the cost of ownership—if there was an inventory of buildings for users to buy—is up as well.

While there are concerns across the industry about interest rates, inflation and their overall impact, Alfredo Gutierrez suggests that the potential for stagflation would be worse. “If the Fed is going to push us into a recession, put us there and make it short-lived.”

Disser: Everything is getting more expensive across the board; that is why inflation is so crucial at this point in time. I don’t believe the increases in interest rates have impacted user sales whatsoever.  The most limiting factor is just availability of space or available options that could be purchased.  There is virtually no inventory. I have clients who want to sell their buildings—they need more space—but have no where to go; because there is nothing larger for them to buy.   Clearly the higher cost of funds results in larger interest payments, but the demand and growth seems to be greatly outweighing borrowing costs.

Williams: Not everyone needs to own a home, not everyone needs to own industrial real estate. Unless there is a specialized need, most operators should probably focus on their business and not try to get into the real estate game. The other consideration is that because of the overall tightness of the market, it’s hard to make a move—hard to buy a building. For many owner-users real estate is as emotional as it is practical.  Those that really want to buy will find a way but my supposition is that things slow on the user front because higher interest rates also affects the entire supply chain of activities within a warehouse as much as the cost of acquiring that warehouse.

 

Source: REjournals

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Ten Issues That Will Impact CRE For The Rest Of 2022

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LaSalle is expecting a high-impact second half of 2022, according to its Mid-Year Update.

The firm provided the top 10 issues it believes could steer commercial real estate’s direction, including those related to bonds, returns, capital flows, expenses, energy, construction and central banks.

GlobeSt.com highlighted LaSalle’s No. 1 top issue: Cost Of Debt.

Following are the others that made its list and LaSalle’s assessment, as well as commentary from others in the industry.

2. Rising Corporate Bond Yields – Upward pressure on discount rates and exit cap rates.

Jon Spelke, managing director of LFB Ventures in El Segundo, tells GlobeSt.com, “Cap rates will continue to follow interest rates upward trends to avoid negative leverage situations. It will be difficult to underwrite a deal with negative leverage and relying on rent growth to bail out the deal. Especially while expense growth continues to trend and at an equal rate as rents.”

3. Higher Required Returns – As a corollary of No. 2, investors will seek slightly higher returns from real estate, given that alternative credit market products will now be priced at higher yields.

Spelke added, “Unlevered yields will continue to follow interest rates and as asset pricing adjusts to the new financing norms (i.e. sellers come to grips with the current asset pricing versus what they thought they could get 90 days ago) deal flow will resume. This economic situation was/is not caused by the real estate industry, (i.e., over building, etc.) so real estate remains a healthy asset class in most regions and submarkets. Once values adjust, the deal flow will resume with strong fundamentals following.”

4. Capital Flows To Real Estate – Despite the mixed impacts listed above, real estate’s reputation as a better inflation hedge than fixed income will likely maintain its status as a favored asset class while the securities markets experience volatility.

Eli Randel, chief operating officer, CREXi, tells GlobeSt.com that increasing costs of capital will likely result in expanded yields and softened values, however, large supplies of capital seeking deployment may help sustain current asset values.

“Commercial real estate, even at compressed yields, remains a more attractive investment vehicle to many relative to cash, bonds, and equities and as a result quality assets in quality markets will find abundant capital demand even at still high-prices,” Randel said. “Look for low-leverage, negative-leverage, and all-cash deals to become more prominent with pricing on those deals reflecting sub-optimal levels. An institutional flight to quality will create a bifurcation in the market where core deals will trade at aggressive pricing with suboptimal deals seeing a decline in value.”

5. Capital Market Shifts – Investor demand moves away from fixed long-term leases and toward shorter indexed leases.

Jeff Needs, director, Moss Adams Real Estate Advisory, tells GlobeSt.com, “As markets continue to search for price stabilization, expect to see shorter-term leases, reduced capital improvements and negotiating leverage continuing to tip to tenants. Vacancies that are best suited to be used in ‘as-is’ condition will lease first, and some landlords will do minor tenant improvements upfront to be more competitive. Though individual markets perform at their own pace, we haven’t reached the bottom yet so expect this to continue until there’s a turning point.”

 6. Rising Cost Of Construction – Chilling effect on construction, wherever rents can’t keep pace.

“As the market slows, the upward pressure on cost (labor and materials) should ease for a bit,” Spelke said. “Subcontractors looking to keep crews engaged will look to be more competitive as projects are put on hold and shelved.”

7. Higher Energy Prices – Higher occupancy costs will erode tenants’ ability to pay higher rents.

Marilee Utter, CRE, global chair of The Counselors of Real Estate, tells GlobeSt.com “The consequences building and that business owners are facing – and need to consider in business continuity and resiliency planning – include rising insurance costs and increased investment in on-site energy resilience.”

8. Slowing Demand – While central banks attempt to cool off overheated sectors, broad-based tenant demand will likely step down a notch because monetary policies are blunt instruments that don’t distinguish well between sectors. In some parts of the world, ‘recession’ danger signals are flashing.

9. Currency Movements – Differentials in interest rates/inflation will favor currencies with rising interest rates and could raise hedging costs for currencies with lagging interest rate increases.

10. Rising Expenses – Just about every expense category associated with operating a property will be under upward cost pressure. Operational-intensive properties that require a lot of headcount or energy consumption could be most affected.

As a corollary to No. 5, LaSalle said net leases will be preferred by investors, but tenants will be under new cost pressures that could affect their ability to renew or to expand. Long leases to real estate operators whose margins could be squeezed by both rising occupancy and labor costs are an example of the kinds of risk to avoid.

Michael Busenhart, Vice President Real Estate at Archer, tells GlobeSt.com that with the recent inflation increases, owners are feeling the benefit on the rental income side, but also feeling the pressure on the expense side.

“As multifamily owners look to maximize LOI, many are seeking an edge to curb expense spending,” Busenhart said. “To do this, they can review financials internally to notice increased trends, or use data that enables asset managers to benchmark their properties/portfolio against the competition to seek areas where they can improve against the overall market.”

 

Source: GlobeSt

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Will Rising Interest Rates Also Propel Upward Movement In Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates?

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Interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected this year.

One key question still being debated by the commercial real estate industry: What do rising interest rates mean for capitalization rates?

One of the most commonly used valuation measures in commercial real estate, cap rates are determined by dividing a property’s net operating income by its current market value. Cap rates are often used to compare the rates of return on commercial properties, and also give insight into how much risk a property may carry.

Since the pandemic, cap-rate compression has been observed, especially, in white-hot sectors like industrial and multifamily. There’s not a one-to-one correlation between cap rates and interest rates, although economists say the expected hikes coming this year could have some influence on where cap rates go in 2022.

Brian Bailey, commercial real estate subject-matter expert at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a discussion this week hosted by commercial real estate software company Altus Group Ltd. that a rise in cap rates is prompted by many variables. But the prospect of rising interest rates does create risk for higher cap rates.

“The risk associated with higher cap rates depends, too, on loan-to-value ratios at origination, Bailey said. Movement in cap rates in an 85% loan-to-value scenario creates a much greater risk of loan default,” Bailey said. “In fact, any commercial loans that have an LTV ratio of 75% or greater may need to be closely monitored.”

Bryan Doyle, managing director of capital markets at CBRE Group Inc., said during the Altus Group panel that the amount of capital waiting on the sidelines to be deployed into real estate should help keep cap rates stabilized, if not further compressing.

In fact, in a five-quarter period ending in the third quarter of 2021, long-term interest rates rose by more than 70 basis points while cap rates for industrial and multifamily compressed by 50 and 75 basis points, respectively, in the same period, CBRE said in a December report. Investors will have to consider whether an increase in cap rates will be offset by higher rents that’ll produce higher net operating-income growth, CBRE noted.

The office sector may be one to watch because of the significant, pandemic-induced changes it’s likely to see, Tim Savage, clinical assistant professor at New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, said at the Altus Group discussion.

“That will impact NOI, and we know that will, therefore, impact cap rates,” Savage continued. “I would say, probably, there will be slight upward pressure on cap rates going forward. They are not divorced from interest rates or, especially, from the Fed’s asset buying.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, in a recent talk hosted by the Counselors of Real Estate also cited the changing nature of the office market, adding remote work has been a game changer during the pandemic. That’s going to change the dynamics of the office market, including how those assets are priced.

“I don’t think that the real estate investors have come to terms with what this all means for the market,” Zandi said. “At some point, that will get reflected in those cap rate spreads.”

 

Source: SFBJ

Property Prices Are Now Only 1% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

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The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index increased by 4.4% last month, with prices of every asset type included in Green Street’s index increasing.

The index is now a mere 1% below pre-pandemic levels.

“Top lines are improving, cap rates are declining, and property prices are quickly recovering lost ground,” said Peter Rothemund, managing director at Green Street. “In some cases, like self-storage, industrial, and manufactured home parks, prices are hitting new highs—and are now 15-25% higher than pre-COVID marks.”

Buyers and sellers have been in a standoff over pricing since the pandemic began, and rising prices suggest that buyers are now more willing to negotiate on price.

“While some discounting has occurred in unique situations, valuations of most asset types have largely held steady or surpassed pre-health crisis levels as strong buyer interest has aligned with limited for-sale inventory,” Marcus & Millichap notes in a recent report on the phenomenon. “This dynamic has also led to cap rate compression among sought after assets.”

Pricing may also be moving because of higher transaction volume, which helps with price discovery. Commercial real estate transaction volume is expected to recover relatively quickly through 2023, to $590 billion versus $500 billion in 2021, according to the Urban Land Institute.

 

Source: GlobeSt.