Tag Archive for: building materials

46089472 - cash dollars lying on the plane.

The rising cost of capital has stalled most commercial real estate development in 2023.

Unless projects were already underway or financing had been secured, there will be few projects started, according to John Chang, senior vice president of research services, Marcus & Millichap.

In the firmā€™s 2023 Construction Trends Report video, Chang said that otherwise, ā€œbuilders are being pushed to the sideline.ā€

ā€œThe cost of capital is rising due to the Federal Reserveā€™s decisions to raise rates considerably, making it difficult to get a construction loan, and if you do, itā€™s rather expensive,ā€ Chang said.

Loans are running 350 to 400 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) of 4.5%. Alternative debt financing is running between 8.75% and 10.5%.

Forecasting Growth for Key Asset Classes

Forecasting for whatā€™s coming online in 2023, Chang said apartments are forecasted to complete 400,000 new units in 2023, growing the overall inventory by about 2.1%. Some 43% of that will be in just 10 metros.

Industrial will see 400 million square feet in 2023 for an inventory gain of 2.3%. Half of that construction will be in eight metros.

Marcus & Millichap expects 42 million square feet of retail to be completed, a ā€œmeagerā€ half-percent of growth, Chang said, and two-thirds of that will be single tenant. Office will see 86 million square feet or growth of 1 percent and two-thirds of that will be situated in the suburbs.

Self storage should see 2.5% inventory growth ā€“ or 47 million square feet, which is well below the 73 million square feet completed in 2019. Self storage is a rare asset class where completions possibly will also grow in 2024.

ā€œDemand drivers should begin to strengthen by early 2024 for most property types,ā€ Chang said. ā€œThere has been relative relief in materials costs for lumber (currently 38% above pre-pandemic rates) and cement (28% above). Supply chain issues are now mostly under control.ā€

 

Source: GlobeSt.

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When it comes to housing in South Florida, homebuyers and renters arenā€™t the only ones grappling with sticker shock.

Developers often face construction costs that are 20% to 30% higher than a year ago ā€“ a trend thatā€™s already stalled some projects at a time when local residents struggle to secure housing. That means builders have to weigh whether to accept smaller profit margins, eschew some projects altogether or, in the case of affordable housing, seek more money from public funding sources to complete those jobs.

The tri-county region has become one of the most expensive U.S. metropolitan areas to live in due to the heated demand for housing and shortage of developable land. Much of that stems from the influx of out-of-state residents who flocked to the area in record numbers during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The rising cost of materials such as lumber, steel, fuel and iron, as well as tariffs, trade issues and surging labor costs have also driven up construction costs, resulting in higher rents for residential and commercial properties. And rising interest rates also are bringing down some sale prices, which impacts developersā€™ profit margins.

The spike in construction costs has led some developers to question the viability of taking on certain projects. For example, if construction estimates for condos come in too high, it may not make financial sense to build them, industry insiders say.

Developers and contractors must budget for construction cost increases and prepare for shortages in the supply chain. Items such as concrete, appliances, glass and steel are just some of the necessary staples that can delay the completion of the buildings.

ā€œConstruction costs have been as volatile as Iā€™ve ever seen them in my 40 years in the market,ā€ saidĀ Michael C. Taylor, CEO of Pompano Beach-based Current Builders. ā€œFrom August of last year, we are seeing 20% to 25% increases. We donā€™t have any line items not increasing.ā€

Typically, Taylor tells developers his quotes are good for six months. But now he can only guarantee prices for 30 to 60 days, as delivery times on certain products have jumped from three months to nearly a year, he added.

Supply chain shortages and material costs are escalating at a pace heā€™s never seen, saidĀ Chris Long, president of Delray Beach-based Kaufman Lynn Construction.

ā€œThereā€™s great demand for housing as people continue moving to Florida, but this has led to affordability challenges,ā€ Long said. ā€œThereā€™s some concern out there that we reached the peak and things need to normalize. They are trying to get deals done before the bubble bursts.ā€

Construction costs for commercial projects are up 7% to 10% a year, so itā€™s less severe than for residential projects, saidĀ Michael C. Brown, executive VP of Florida for Sweden-based construction firm Skanska. Nevertheless, many of its health care and education clients are scaling down the size of projects ā€“ an eight-story hospital wing instead of 10 stories, for instance ā€“ to move forward.

Contract Sticking Points

In many cases, the rise in construction costs has created friction between developers and general contractors.

Contracts inked a few years ago couldnā€™t factor in dramatic building cost increases or supply chain delays, so the parties have to determine who pays for those additional costs, saidĀ Lisa Colon, a construction attorney with Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr in Fort Lauderdale.

ā€œOwners are making concessions because of supply chain issues that they would not have made two years ago,ā€ Colon said. ā€œProfit margins are less, but you can push it down to the consumer. The consumer will continue to see an increase in rent. Many developers and contractors are now adding price escalation clauses that specify a larger commitment from developers to cover cost overruns. Itā€™s a false thought that contractors are making all this money as prices are going up. Nothing could be further from the truth. Their profit margins are being squeezed even tighter.ā€

Construction contracts should also address delays and whether material shortages should result in financial compensation, because most contractors will insist on avoiding liability when material shortages are out of their control, saidĀ Jordan Nadel, a construction attorney at Miami-based Mark Migdal & Hayden.

 

Source: SFBJ