Commercial Real Estate Investor Sentiment Signals A Changing Outlook

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As we round the halfway mark of 2022, dynamics are shifting in the commercial real estate investment environment.

Preliminary data from SitusAMC Insight’s second quarter 2022 institutional investor survey shows changing preferences among property segments.

Compared to the previous quarter, the percentage of investors selecting industrial as the best property type over the next year plummeted from 47 percent to 11 percent, citing major concerns that the sector is overpriced. Apartment was the most favored segment among investors; 56 percent of investors ranked apartment as the best sector, up from 21 percent last quarter.

Skyrocketing mortgage rates are putting a crimp in single-family affordability, resulting in strong demand conditions for apartments. Several investors also remarked that apartments were the best inflation hedge among the property types. Retail appears to be making a comeback, with investor preference for the sector climbing to 33 percent from just 11 percent last quarter, citing opportunity for yield plays. Investor sentiment on office, on the other hand, is extremely bearish; no investors selected it as the top property type, with the sector falling from 16 percent in first quarter.

SitusAMC is seeing these sentiment shifts play out in their client work. After so many quarters of seemingly unstoppable growth, the industrial sector is starting to show initial signs of a slowdown, even though fundamentals are still strong. While rents are still growing in most markets and investors are still anticipating widespread above-inflationary rent growth and are underwriting to these assumptions, it is unrealistic to expect another quarter of 8 percent to 12 percent rent growth. Meanwhile, the buyer pool for industrial has been shrinking since the beginning of the year, and some of the larger portfolios are not being financed or traded.

Some Value Deterioration

The value driver for apartments in the second quarter was market rents and rent growth. There is still very strong sales activity, but, as with industrial, there are fewer investors at the table when the bidding reaches the best and final round. Regardless, the fundamentals remain very strong. For the first time in several quarters, low-rise apartments are performing better than garden apartments. Suburban is still outperforming urban, but some urban locations are showing signs of growth.

Investment rates are not decreasing across the board— they are very specific to the assets and the submarket. Gateway markets are lagging but improving. New York is the leader of the gateway markets, and Chicago is seeing improvements in rent growth, which is translating into some value improvement. San Francisco is starting to produce positive indicators as well, and Boston and Seattle are experiencing growth momentum. SitusAMC Insight’s proprietary multifamily affordability indexes indicate improved affordability in gateway markets vs. affordability deterioration in non-gateway metros.

SitusAMC’s retail valuations were slightly up in second quarter. Leasing activity has picked up, with many reflecting short-term mid-pandemic leases that are expiring and being renewed. A couple of large deals involving grocery-anchored centers have signaled very strong cap rates, in the low-to-mid 4 percent range, in strong markets like San Diego and Miami. However, these rates were negotiated at the beginning of the year when the debt markets had not yet changed.

Some SitusAMC clients are repricing their assets down slightly because of the debt market environment. In addition, recent strong retail sales are unlikely to continue as inflation erodes consumers’ disposable income and redirects spending to everyday necessities like gasoline and food. Retail outlets that provide essential goods, such as neighborhood and community centers with grocery anchors, will likely maintain steady income streams. Malls could be hurt by the decline in nonessential spending.

Office values remained relatively flat in the second quarter; most of the increases in values seen were owing to contractual rent increases. Overall office values are skewed, however, by strong growth in life science. SitusAMC is seeing many tenants downsizing. Daily office occupancy is mired around 40 percent, and it might not exceed 60 percent in the long term. There has been a flight to quality as employers try to attract top talent during a tight labor market.

On the bright side, near-term market rent growth has steadily increased over the past year, however, and is getting closer to the standard 3 percent. The strongest growth markets continue to be in the Sun Belt and the suburbs, which are doing better than CBD and gateway markets, but rents are increasing in those areas, as well. There have also been a lot of early renewals—near 10 percent, the highest level since 2015—though this is partly due to leases that expired during the pandemic and were renewed on a short-term basis.

 

Source: Commercial Property Executive

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Building Burden: Rising Construction Costs Weigh Down Profits

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When it comes to housing in South Florida, homebuyers and renters aren’t the only ones grappling with sticker shock.

Developers often face construction costs that are 20% to 30% higher than a year ago – a trend that’s already stalled some projects at a time when local residents struggle to secure housing. That means builders have to weigh whether to accept smaller profit margins, eschew some projects altogether or, in the case of affordable housing, seek more money from public funding sources to complete those jobs.

The tri-county region has become one of the most expensive U.S. metropolitan areas to live in due to the heated demand for housing and shortage of developable land. Much of that stems from the influx of out-of-state residents who flocked to the area in record numbers during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The rising cost of materials such as lumber, steel, fuel and iron, as well as tariffs, trade issues and surging labor costs have also driven up construction costs, resulting in higher rents for residential and commercial properties. And rising interest rates also are bringing down some sale prices, which impacts developers’ profit margins.

The spike in construction costs has led some developers to question the viability of taking on certain projects. For example, if construction estimates for condos come in too high, it may not make financial sense to build them, industry insiders say.

Developers and contractors must budget for construction cost increases and prepare for shortages in the supply chain. Items such as concrete, appliances, glass and steel are just some of the necessary staples that can delay the completion of the buildings.

“Construction costs have been as volatile as I’ve ever seen them in my 40 years in the market,” said Michael C. Taylor, CEO of Pompano Beach-based Current Builders. “From August of last year, we are seeing 20% to 25% increases. We don’t have any line items not increasing.”

Typically, Taylor tells developers his quotes are good for six months. But now he can only guarantee prices for 30 to 60 days, as delivery times on certain products have jumped from three months to nearly a year, he added.

Supply chain shortages and material costs are escalating at a pace he’s never seen, said Chris Long, president of Delray Beach-based Kaufman Lynn Construction.

“There’s great demand for housing as people continue moving to Florida, but this has led to affordability challenges,” Long said. “There’s some concern out there that we reached the peak and things need to normalize. They are trying to get deals done before the bubble bursts.”

Construction costs for commercial projects are up 7% to 10% a year, so it’s less severe than for residential projects, said Michael C. Brown, executive VP of Florida for Sweden-based construction firm Skanska. Nevertheless, many of its health care and education clients are scaling down the size of projects – an eight-story hospital wing instead of 10 stories, for instance – to move forward.

Contract Sticking Points

In many cases, the rise in construction costs has created friction between developers and general contractors.

Contracts inked a few years ago couldn’t factor in dramatic building cost increases or supply chain delays, so the parties have to determine who pays for those additional costs, said Lisa Colon, a construction attorney with Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr in Fort Lauderdale.

“Owners are making concessions because of supply chain issues that they would not have made two years ago,” Colon said. “Profit margins are less, but you can push it down to the consumer. The consumer will continue to see an increase in rent. Many developers and contractors are now adding price escalation clauses that specify a larger commitment from developers to cover cost overruns. It’s a false thought that contractors are making all this money as prices are going up. Nothing could be further from the truth. Their profit margins are being squeezed even tighter.”

Construction contracts should also address delays and whether material shortages should result in financial compensation, because most contractors will insist on avoiding liability when material shortages are out of their control, said Jordan Nadel, a construction attorney at Miami-based Mark Migdal & Hayden.

 

Source: SFBJ

Former Kmart Could Be Redeveloped Into Apartments

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Multifamily giant Morgan Group could redevelop a former Kmart store in Lantana into an apartment complex.

The Town Council will consider the rezoning and site plan on the evening of July 11 for the 18.6-acre site at 1201 and 1301 S. Dixie Highway, plus 457 Greynolds Circle. It currently has a vacant 84,350-square-foot retail box that Kmart left in 2019, a 68,836-square-foot retail building anchored by Winn-Dixie and 11,765 square feet of retail for multiple tenants.

The property was acquired by Lantana SDC LLC, an affiliate of Miami-based Saglo Development Corp., for $10.2 million in 2017. However, the application states the Kmart parcel at 1201 S. Dixie Highway is under contract to Houston-based Morgan Group and is slated for redevelopment. The other two retail buildings would remain, as Winn-Dixie and some other tenants have long-term leases, according to the application.

The property was approved for “mixed use” zoning in 2019 with the potential for 279 apartments. But now that it’s clear only the Kmart parcel could be redeveloped, the property owner wants the zoning changed to permit 231 apartments on just that part of the land.

Lantana Village would have five buildings of four stories each, plus a clubhouse and a pool. There would be 442 surface parking spaces. The entrance would be from Greynolds Circle. The developer said the project would cost about $65 million to build.

With 157,413 square feet of leasable space, the units would range from 585 to 1,242 square feet. There would be 51 studio apartments, 105 one-bedroom apartments, and 74 two-bedroom apartments. In addition, the developer said it would perform renovations and façade improvements to the remaining shopping center.

“Placing a residential development within walking distance to commercial uses that conveniently serve the surrounding neighborhood, such as a grocery store, restaurants, retail, and personal services, creates a sense of community and will retain the ‘small town’ character that Lantana is known for,” the developer stated in the application.

Fort Lauderdale-based attorney Cushla Talbut, who represents the developer in the application, couldn’t be reached for comment. Miami-based MSA Architects designed the project.

While the retail market in South Florida has outperformed much of the nation, it can still be difficult to replace a big-box retailer like Kmart. Apartment rents are rising rapidly, so the land is likely worth more as multifamily than retail.

Click here to view a slideshow of the proposed Lantana Village Apartments project.

 

Source: SFBJ

Festival Flea Market Mall In Pompano Beach To Be Replaced With Warehouses

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A developer and warehouse operator won approval from the Pompano Beach City Commission to replace the Festival Flea Market Mall with about 470,000 square feet of warehouse space.

North Miami-based IMC Equity, led by owner and CEO Yorham Izhak, is working with Atlanta-based IDI Logistics to demolish the Festival Flea Market Mall on the southeast corner of the Florida Turnpike and Sample Road, and redevelop the site as a warehouse complex with a 412,347-square-foot building and a 58,962-square-foot building.

The Pompano Beach City Commission just voted to rezone from “general business” (B-3) to “general industrial” (I-1) a 23.8-acre portion of the 37-acre Festival Flea Market site. The rest of the site, which is at the corner of Sample Road and Northwest 27 Avenue, remains a commercial outparcel for a proposed Racetrac Gas Station and Market.

The city commission also approved a text amendment and a map amendment to the local land use plan for the Festival Flea Market property. IDI Logistics filed the application for the land-use amendments, and a company controlled by IMC Equity applied for the rezoning.

In 2018, IMC Equity paid $25 million to acquire the Festival Flea Market Mall at 2900 West Sample Road and another $31 million for the mall business itself. The flea market rents space to tenants that sell apparel, shoes, bags, luggage, jewelry, and electronics, among other types of goods.

“It will be at least a year before the tenants would have to leave,” Dennis Mele, an attorney for IMC Equity, said at a June 14 meeting of city commissioners, who voted then to table their consideration of the warehouse project.

Mele said the Festival Flea Market project will be the fourth warehouse development that IDI Logistics has pursued in Pompano Beach. The Atlanta-based company owns and operates the Pompano M Business Center, the Pompano II Business Center, and the Rock Lake Business Center, which is just south of the Festival Flea Market Mall.

Commissioner Beverly Perkins said after the Festival Flea Market Mall is demolished, the city should assist tenants of the mall, including some who have leased space there for more than 20 years.

The trend toward online shopping, which the pandemic strengthened, is driving the industrial redevelopment of the Festival Flea Market Mall, according to the rezoning application filed by IMC Equity. The location of the mall also allows fast access to the Turnpike, I-95 and the Sawgrass Expressway.

“The impacts of COVID-19 will likely impact the way people shop well into the future, which will continue to reduce the need for brick-and-mortar stores as people continue to do much of their shopping online,” according to the rezoning application.

Industrial vacancy in Broward County plunged to 4.7 percent in the first quarter from 8.7 percent during the same period of last year, as tenants absorbed new warehouses and other types of industrial property, according to a report by Avison Young. The vacancy rate in the first quarter was 4.1 percent in Pompano Beach, which has 29.6 million square feet of industrial space, the largest inventory among seven sub-markets in Broward County, Avison Young reported. Industrial space under construction in the first quarter totaled 285,176 square feet in Pompano Beach, nearly 600,000 square feet in southeast Broward, and 1.6 million square feet county-wide, according to Avison Young.

Broward County had a 4.2 percent industrial vacancy rate in the first quarter, compared with 2.6 percent in Miami-Dade County and 4.5 percent in Palm Beach County, according to industrial market research by JLL.

 

Source: The Real Deal