Tag Archive for: multifamily investment

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Industrial Was The Second Most Traded Sector For The Year

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Industrial, with multifamily one of the two investment darlings of the pandemic and after, did relatively well in November.

But not well enough as it still took a big hit according to MSCI’s November 2023 report on the sector. It took a 64% year-over-year drop.

“Deal volume through November puts the sector behind apartments as the second most traded sector for the year,” they wrote. “Deal volume still fell in November even with these positive elements supporting the sector. Macro forces have simply made it difficult for investors to underwrite investments.”

Individual asset sales took the biggest hit, down 69%, a change from early in the year.

“The pace of sales for individual assets had fallen at a 53% YOY rate in April and had generally improved in subsequent months,” MSCI wrote. “It is unclear at this point if the 69% decline is simply a number that will be revised up in coming months as smaller deals are found or a sign of a new sense of hesitancy.”

Flex saw a drop of 76%; warehouse was down 61%. The smallest drop was in portfolio and entity, at 36%. Things look better on a year-to-date year-over-year basis. Total industrial was off by 49%. Flex was down 63%, warehouse dropped by 46%, single access fell 41%, and portfolio and entity dropped 64%.

There were no “entity-level deals” during November. That wasn’t an additional loss compared to 2022 as there were also none last November. But had there been, the month might ultimately have looked different with a large boost to the total. Overall, these big-level deals have undergone a major shift. In 2022, they represented 16% of the entire total industrial investment. This year, the cut is 3%.

Even if things had been better in November, with declines that were no worse than October, the chances of 2023 matching 2022 would still have been slim.

“To match the $160b of industrial property sales seen last year, sales in December of this year would need to total $84b,” wrote MSCI. “The single strongest December ever was in 2021 when $37.1b sold.”

More than doubling a previous record, given the current pace, seems unlikely. On the positive side, industrial property prices have done better than other sectors.

“The RCA CPPI National All-Property Index fell 8.0% YOY in November but the industrial index climbed 1.8%. Industrial investors were losing ground relative to inflation at this pace, but a gain is a gain and this pace was the strongest across all property sectors.”

 

Source: GlobeSt

This Asset Class Posted The Largest Price Growth In 2021

American dollars grow from the ground

In a surprising twist, suburban office achieved the greatest price growth at 14.8% of all CRE asset classes over the last year, besting investor favorites multifamily and industrial.

John Chang of Marcus & Millichap notes that the price growth in the sector reflects three factors: “a pricing bounce, a disproportionate share of well-leased properties in the sales data, and some investor speculation.”

Unlike the price gains notched in multifamily and industrial, suburban office appreciation is not well supported by rent growth, which was only up by 0.6% or vacancy rate change.

“Part of the gain is an anomaly,” Chang says. “Suburban office prices dipped last year in the early stages of the pandemic, so part of the gains are the property types simply recovering losses. Second, the sales market has been dominated by well-leased properties—high-quality tenants with long-term leases in place. The sales composition is a bit different and there were fewer weaker assets in the deal mix that would normally drag prices down.”

Chang also says investors are taking note of the widely-held belief that to facilitate employees’ return to the office, companies will have to open locations closer to people’s homes.

“A lot of workers, especially millennials relocated to the suburbs because of the pandemic, and a new trend is forming. Investors are positioning ahead of that curve buying low rise suburban buildings,” Chang says. “Investors are betting on history repeating itself. A significant portion of suburban office stock was built in the 80s when baby boomers migrated there. It looks like millennials are in the process of making that same move.”

The second fastest price growth, according to data from Real Capital Analytics, was in apartment properties, which came in at a 14.7% increase. These values are supported by a 90 basis point vacancy reduction through Q2, Chang says.  And again, investors have millennials to thank.

“Investors are pursuing multifamily properties because of demographics,” Chang says. “The aging millennials are now entering their thirties en masse, which is driving household formation up aggressively. Basically, there are so many millennials trying to move out on their own that there are simply not enough housing units to meet the demand. That trend is expected to run five years of longer, supporting the underlying thesis for multifamily investment.”

Industrial came in third, with price gains of 13.6% over the last year. That reflects average rent growth of 5.9% over the last year and a 30 basis point vacancy drop to 5% nationally, as well as cap rate compression of about 20 bps.

“Industrial properties have drawn increased investor attention over the last couple of years as e-commerce thrived during the pandemic,” Chang says. “The supply chain issues of recent months have also brought forth the importance of industrial property as businesses are stockpiling increased inventories to mitigate shipping and delivery risk. Industrial real estate has one of the strongest investment outlooks like investors penciling in aggressive rent gains into their valuation models.”

 

Source: GlobeSt