November 2022

Industrial Cap Rates Expected To Rise But Outlook For Seasoned Investors Remains Strong

businessman looking through telescope_186407930_s 770x320

Industrial has been on quite a tear over the past few years, as changes in consumer behavior have driven demand for more logistics and fulfillment facilities in key markets.

And according to one industry expert, the sector should stay a favored asset class for experienced investors, despite rising capital costs.

“Post-pandemic consumer behavior has changed and the rate of growth in ecommerce has slowed which has already led to pullbacks by some companies,” says Greg Burns, Managing Director at Stonebriar Commercial Finance, noting Amazon’s recent announcements regarding its industrial portfolio. “Demand for industrial though was driven by other factors as well including a move toward onshoring and the disruption of just in time supply chains.”

With that said, however, Burns said “depending on the what and the where, I would not be surprised to see cap rates widen another 50 to 100 basis points.”

“The cost of debt and equity capital have increased and cap rate hurdles have increased for institutional buyers,” Burns says, adding that he recently saw an increase of 100 basis points in an appraisal for a property in a market where his firm closed a deal six months ago.

Burns will discuss what’s happening in the capital markets in a session at next month’s GlobeSt Industrial conference in Scottsdale, Ariz. He says Stonebriar’s definition of industrial includes not just warehouse and distribution facilities, but manufacturing, life sciences, cold storage and data centers as well, and notes that “each of those sub-categories have their own dynamic and, broadly, all are growing.”

“We prefer properties with multi-modal access, especially those near ports, with most opportunities we’ve seen recently being to the southeast of a line drawn from Baltimore to Phoenix,” Burns says. “We also pay attention to outdoor storage capacity as that has become a greater consideration for tenants. There have been several announcements of new manufacturing sites relating to microchip and electric vehicles which should lead to demand for new logistics properties nearby.”

As the costs of debt capital rise, Burns says Stonebriar’s underwriting will continue to focus on the sponsor, asset and market and “that won’t change.”

“We do few spec development deals and will likely be more granular on understanding the demand/supply side of a respective market,” Burns says.

Ultimately, a recession seems likely and Burns says the changing economic landscape will have “varying impacts” on investors and individual markets alike.

“From our perspective, there will be a premium on a sponsor’s experience and capacity,” Burns says. “I anticipate industrial will remain a favored asset class for investors although those with less experience in the sector could pull back until the economy recovers.”

Source: GlobeSt.

Industry News, Money

CRE Outlook Still Mixed Despite Apparent Inflation Slowdown

Core CPI inflation and headline CPI both decelerated last month, in a trend experts say could portend more disinflation factors in the near term.

Analysts from Marcus & Millichap note in a new analysis that the prices for some commodities also fell in October, including apparel and used motor vehicles, and the fees certain medical services.

“And these may be early signs that less disrupted supply chains are alleviating some of the structural drivers of inflation,” Marcus & Millichap say.

Headline CPI increased 7.7 percent over the 12 months ending in October, the smallest year-over-year increase since January of this year. While the deceleration is notable, Marcus & Millichap experts say the downshift is unlikely to be enough to fend off another hike in the overnight lending rate in December.

“The Federal Open Market Committee noted in its most recent forward guidance that it is looking for a clear trend of inflation normalizing toward the 2 percent target,” Marcus & Millichap say. “Even so, the FOMC has also acknowledged that there is a delay between when monetary policies are put in place and when the economy responds, and last month’s slower price climb, paired with an uptick in unemployment, support a more moderate rate hike. The current expectation is for a 50-basis-point December rise in the fed funds measure, capping the fastest year of increases since the early 1980s.”

But October’s inflation news offers a “mixed outlook” for retail CRE: while rent growth has improved and vacancy has tightened over the last year, prices continue to keep pace at restaurants and grocers. Gas prices also ticked up in October after three months of decreases, and higher energy bills are predicted to constrain consumer spending entering the holiday shopping season.

High housing costs are good news for the multifamily sector, where rents continue to rise at a rate that’s half the typical house payment. Over half of last month’s CPI increase was driven by higher housing costs, Marcus & Millichap says.

“In recognition of these housing needs, multifamily construction activity is set to hit a record magnitude next year,” Marcus & Millichap say. “While the new supply is warranted in the long-run, in the short term it will drag on fundamentals, especially as high inflation and rising interest rates weigh on economic outlooks and prompt more households to stay put in 2023.”

Lenders are also pumping the brakes as the cost of debt continues to increase. CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index fell by 11.1% quarter-over-quarter and 4.7% year-over-year in Q3, while spreads widened on 55%-to-65%-loan-to-value (LTV) fixed-rate permanent loans running from seven to 10 years in length. Marcus & Millichap has noted that pricing is recalibrating across most property types as the expectation gap between buyers and sellers widen and lending criteria have tightened.

“But once interest rates stabilize, however, investors and lenders will be better able to determine valuations and move forward on trades,” the firm says. “In the interim, the dynamic environment fostered by the Fed could lead to unique options for buyers, who may face less competition now than when rates plateau.”

Source: GlobeSt.

Industry News, Money

Inflation, Interest Rates And The Industrial Market

Pesky, lingering inflation that is higher than we’ve seen in years, along with six interest rate hikes totaling 375 basis points since the beginning of the year have had varying degrees of impact on all sectors in commercial real estate.

The speculation of further hikes later this year and in early 2023 doesn’t help.

Industrial real estate remains one of the darling sectors, though it is being tested by current economic conditions.

Four industrial real estate professionals, including owners, investors and brokers, three of them based in Chicago and one based in Houston, participated in a roundtable discussion, giving their perspectives on inflation, interest rates and industrial real estate. The participants: Alfredo Gutierrez, Founder, SparrowHawk; Rick Nevarez, Director of Acquisitions, Clear Height Properties; Kelly Disser, Executive Vice President, NAI Hiffman; and Hugh Williams, Principal and Managing Broker, MK Asset Brokerage.

What are the implications of the five 2022 rate hikes on transaction/acquisition activity?

Alfredo Gutierrez: It’s a challenging time as there are more investors stepping to the sideline. This means that if you are selling an asset today you might get three or four offers versus a dozen one year ago. On the buy side, if investors have cash or lines of credit tied to a low rate, they are utilizing their resources. The fundamentals on the income side of the equation, because of rent growth, are still strong—that’s factual. Some are putting down their pencils because they are concerned about the potential for a recession and whether we’ll see the same levels of rent growth.

In reality, cap rates are a function of how much capital there is to invest into something. The question is how much dry powder remains on the sideline. We’re seeing an erosion of capital on the retail side and people starting to get squeezed. However, banks, life companies and institutions still have capital to place, and I believe it will flow into industrial.

Rick Nevarez: Activity has slowed, but it hasn’t come to a grinding halt. Overall, we continue to see deal activity and are expecting a big fourth quarter. It’s like airplane turbulence: some respond with white-knuckle gripping of the arm rest while others acknowledge it’s taking place and go about their business. It’s really a matter of understanding the fundamentals of the real estate and how the current economic environment impacts those fundamentals.

Kelly Disser: It’s an interesting time with different groups being impacted in different ways. Owner occupants, private investors, institutional investors—all have acted or reacted differently. The demand for industrial space and leasing absorption today is still very strong. Inventory/vacancy is at an all-time low. As a result we’re seeing rent growth like we haven’t seen before. In certain underwriting acquisitions, we are seeing the impact of interest rates on values somewhat mitigated by rent growth and rents trending even higher than what we see today. The equation is evolving. The development and investment sales markets have reacted and adjusted. Those with large funds have the ability to remain active and aggressive—and they are distinguishing themselves. Investors/developers who are sourcing capital on a deal by deal basis may be having issues in the current environment.

Hugh Williams: There was a point this summer when large institutional investors essentially said, “pencils down on all deals,” unless it was a perfectly placed asset/tenant combination in the middle of the fairway. Investors and developers are proceeding with haunting caution because at some point the math does not work. You cannot acquire an asset when you underwrite debt costs that are greater than your projected return. That is problematic.

But we need to remember we’ve been in a low-rate environment for a long time, an environment that couldn’t last forever; and there are geopolitical events taking place that are also important considerations. I have heard people say they are pulling back but some of them aren’t sure why. Overall, leasing activity is quite strong, and things are still moving forward particularly in select markets and micro-markets.

How are the rate hikes changing the flow of acquisitions and dispositions, if at all? And are they impacting different size buildings differently?

Nevarez: Interest rate hikes have pushed some buyers and sellers to the sidelines. But we are still buyers, looking at a variety of opportunities including value-add acquisitions. Sometimes you have to tweak underwriting to have a deal pencil out and make sense. Now more than ever, you need to understand ALL elements of the transaction, and what is motivating buyers and sellers.

Gutierrez: The effect based on size is really a case by case situation. But in general, if you had two assets where essential building characteristics except for size were essentially the same, the smaller asset would feel the pinch more. While smaller buildings are more likely to have shorter term leases, it will depend on the tenant roster and the lease terms. At the same time, because the rent roll may turnover more quickly, smaller buildings may be able to adjust pricing more quickly, too.

Disser: Interest rate hikes are impacting the flow of acquisitions and dispositions. The pace has slowed in the second half of 2022 from what we saw the prior 18 months. But it is all relative, the first 18 months coming out of covid we saw activity levels, values and rents not seen before—in Chicago and across the country. An adjustment was needed. There was simply too much money chasing too few assets: the definition of inflation. Impact varies from case-to-case, according to location, submarket, or quality of asset.

Williams: My hypothesis is that if you go to a smaller, non-institutional building, it’s generally a different type of buyer, with a different mentality. For example, an operator like Blackstone is taking the long view. They are likely focused on main and main locations. When they go to build, they are focused on operating their platform as a business, not necessarily the conditions of the moment or focused on a near to short term exit. Smaller owners may be at greater risk—real and emotional—based on being prisoners of the moment (as we all are). The short stroke is big boats are better ballasted against storms. Small boats get tossed about.

In other asset classes—like office and multifamily—some say that activity has slowed as the market looks for a re-set. To what degree is that occurring in the industrial sector, and are there other considerations (i.e., size, etc.)?

Nevarez: It’s really hard to say that any asset class is recession-proof, but industrial certainly is close. If the market was overbuilt, the impact might be different. There may be a scaling back and slight reset of pricing, but it’s not the same as other sectors because demand has been so strong. Our portfolio, for example, is 96% leased due to lack of product in the markets we own and operate in.

Gutierrez: A lot of people have put pens down, so to speak. Unless you need to place capital, you won’t. With some of the overall questions that exist, and fewer offers to consider, there isn’t necessarily a lot of pricing clarity. As 2022 wraps up our volumes will be down, particularly for the second half of the year.

Disser: It is always dangerous to generalize. The idea of a price reset isn’t absolute in industrial, as it may be in other sectors. In the industrial sector I think value equations are evolving, given rent growth. We see absorption, leasing and rental rates continuing to increase. The user/occupier clients of mine generally are operating businesses that are still strong and eyeing expansion. In addition to scrutinizing interest rates, many are watching how lenders behave—as many have slowed loan origination activity. For some groups, the ability to secure the capital for a project in some cases is as much of a question as the cost of the capital. If you lose your equity partner or can’t get a loan—you’re out.

Williams: There is a group that has been waiting 5-6, 10 years for a reset! The sky is continually falling. Say it long enough and eventually you will be right. Pricing may fluctuate from its peak, but I don’t anticipate an incredible swing. The reality is that developers are much more rational today and have been that way for the last decade. What is going on in the interest rate environment forces additional austerity measures onto industrial developers.

All of the various elements at play lead me to believe that the sky will not fall, maybe a little rain, but rainwater is one of the keys to life—ask California.

How are higher interest rates impacting user sales/acquisitions? Are the higher rates making them any more or less likely to look at renting versus owning?

Nevarez: Higher Interest rates make it harder for users to come up with the capital to purchase an asset. Most users would rather place their capital in their actual business operations (machinery, employees, etc.). Current owners may also look at their overall business plan to determine where they may need additional capital and find creative ways on how to get that capital. They look at their actual real estate as an opportunity to raise capital—through a sale leaseback—and to Clear Height (landlords) as a way to get that capital, creating a win-win situation for both parties.

Gutierrez: One of the factors that pushes users to consider an acquisition is the upward trajectory of rental rates. They figure they might as well buy. But in the current interest rate environment, the cost of ownership—if there was an inventory of buildings for users to buy—is up as well.

While there are concerns across the industry about interest rates, inflation and their overall impact, Alfredo Gutierrez suggests that the potential for stagflation would be worse. “If the Fed is going to push us into a recession, put us there and make it short-lived.”

Disser: Everything is getting more expensive across the board; that is why inflation is so crucial at this point in time. I don’t believe the increases in interest rates have impacted user sales whatsoever. The most limiting factor is just availability of space or available options that could be purchased. There is virtually no inventory. I have clients who want to sell their buildings—they need more space—but have no where to go; because there is nothing larger for them to buy. Clearly the higher cost of funds results in larger interest payments, but the demand and growth seems to be greatly outweighing borrowing costs.

Williams: Not everyone needs to own a home, not everyone needs to own industrial real estate. Unless there is a specialized need, most operators should probably focus on their business and not try to get into the real estate game. The other consideration is that because of the overall tightness of the market, it’s hard to make a move—hard to buy a building. For many owner-users real estate is as emotional as it is practical. Those that really want to buy will find a way but my supposition is that things slow on the user front because higher interest rates also affects the entire supply chain of activities within a warehouse as much as the cost of acquiring that warehouse.

Source: REjournals

Industry News

Cold Storage And E-Commerce, But Not Amazon, Sustaining South Florida’s Industrial Boom

For most of the last few years, Amazon has been the dominant force in South Florida’s industrial market, but the e-commerce giant’s recent pullback hasn’t had a negative impact on the region’s warehouse market, industry insiders said at Bisnow‘s South Florida Industrial Outlook event last week.

“The last few years it has all been Amazon, right? They were making 90% of that e-commerce growth. They were really bailing us out of all that space we could not lease,” Bridge Industrial Vice President Aaron Hirschl said at the event. “Now it’s everybody else playing catch-up. It is 85% of all the e-commerce deals are other groups other than Amazon. It’s really good to see that positive growth there.”

The vacancy rate for South Florida industrial properties dropped to 1.8% in the third quarter, according to JLL research. Rents have grown 60% year-over-year, to an all-time record of $14.35 per SF. Construction is speeding up as a result: So far in 2022, approximately 2.3M SF of new product has been delivered. Over the next 18 months, JLL projects deliveries to hit 7.8M SF.

“Much of that is still fueled by e-commerce, even in the absence of the industry’s leader,” Prologis Vice President Jason Tenenbaum said at the event, held at the GalleryOne Fort Lauderdale by Hilton. “I’d say e-commerce continues to be the predominant player, I am guessing in the majority of our portfolios, and that’s notable particularly because of Amazon’s specific slowdown this year,” he said. “I would say the vast majority of our work is centered around that space.”

Tenenbaum said that he expects more leasing in the e-commerce space to come from third-party logistics companies as retailers themselves look to outsource their distribution. Those companies, called 3PLs, have accounted for more than 35% of all warehouse leasing in South Florida so far this year, according to a just published CBRE report.

“I think as pricing and rents continue to rise and supply is constrained, you will see a lot more of all of our clients electing to 3PL their supply chain,” Tenenbaum said.

After e-commerce, the biggest driver of demand in the industrial market is in the food and beverage industry and their need for cold storage, developers at the event said. The global cold storage market was over $9.6B last year and is projected to reach $11.3B this year and hit $25.4B by 2027, according to an October market report by Reportlinker.

“If you look at where the demand is the most nationally, clearly cold storage will be it,” BBX Logistics Properties Mark Levy said. “In South Florida, if you look at the footprint of the market as a percentage of the total base, it’s a very, very small amount of cold storage space product that has been delivered.”

Tenenbaum said that the tourism industry in particular has been active in looking for cold storage properties, a piece of the market that had been largely absent for the previous two to three years.

“There was a time in the last 24 to 36 months where the tourism activity was way down. Now it’s back at a high pre-pandemic levels,” Tenenbaum said. “As tourism has come back and the cruise ships are set to sail again, that’s a really active space.”

Levy said that while the cold storage market is “still tremendously undersupplied,” building the space on a speculative basis is still a rarity. But Bridge Industrial launched a spec cold storage warehouse in Hialeah last year, and signed FreezePak to a 312K SF lease in March.

“I remember when Bridge was working on that development and we thought ‘Those guys are crazy! There is no way that they are going to get those rents,’” Hirschl said. “And sure enough, they leased it out and knocked it out of the park. They proved a thesis and it was really cool to see it happen.”

Kroger, the largest grocery chain in the country, doesn’t have a supermarket in South Florida, but it opened a 60K SF warehouse in Opa-Locka this year to start delivering groceries directly to customers’ homes. Kroger said in its September earnings report that its delivery sales grew by 34% from the previous year.

“Kroger does not have any grocery stores here but they are renting near people’s homes,” Hirschl said. “That trend is really interesting to see if they can really penetrate the market here.”

Butters Construction & Development Director of Acquisitions Adam Vaisman said on a panel that, in addition to e-commerce and food and beverage companies, manufacturing is an increasing presence in the market. He said his firm signed a 200K SF lease with a manufacturing firm in Broward County and was getting ready to break ground.

“You will definitely see more of the manufacturing jobs, especially given our labor pool here in South Florida,” Vaisman said. “We are definitely starting to see that and I think that trend is starting to pick up if you continue to have global instability the way we do.”

But while manufacturers and cold storage providers largely need specialized space, e-commerce users are taking any space they can get in a market with soaring rents and sub-2% vacancy.

“Location is the most important always, so for e-commerce users, if they can’t find a new building and it’s a market they need to be in, they will make it work with a Class-B space or a Class-C space,” said Seagis Property Group Vice President of Florida Acquisitions and Leasing Bradlee Lord. “Public transportation will only get increasingly worse as the population grows. With Covid in 2020, the roads were still relatively busy. Location matters as congestion gets worse.”

Source: Bisnow